Vps Hosting Forex Early Warning

Forex News 16:20 USD / CAD cae a 1,3400 barrio como aumentos de petróleo en OPEP tratar esperanzas El USD / CAD par39s intento de recuperación a 1,3500 marca psicológica se vendió en el par y ahora ha caído a una nueva sesión baja en medio de renovado optimismo alrededor de la salida de la OPEP acuerdo. El par se vio bajo intensa presión de ventas después de comentarios de Irak, que cooperará con la OPEP para llegar a un acuerdo, elevó los precios del petróleo crudo de forma muy alta, lo que finalmente se vio beneficiar a la commodity - Moneda enlazada - Loonie. De hecho, el crudo WTI revirtió las primeras pérdidas abruptas y ahora cotiza con fuertes ganancias de casi 2.0 por día, oscilando alrededor de 47.00 / barril. Mientras tanto, el mayor permaneció sin ser afectado por el resurgimiento del interés de compra del billete verde, con el índice general del dólar estadounidense borrando las pérdidas iniciales para volver a territorio positivo y acercándose al nivel más alto desde marzo de 2003 tocó la semana pasada. Siguiendo adelante, el par seguiría dependiendo de la acción de precios alrededor de los mercados de petróleo y se negociaría como un indicador de petróleo antes de la reunión oficial de la OPEP en Viena el miércoles. Niveles técnicos a observar En una debilidad sostenida por debajo de 1.3400 manejar, lo que conduce a una caída posterior por debajo del área de soporte 1.3385-80, el par es probable que acelerar la diapositiva hacia la prueba de 50 días SMA apoyo cerca de 1.3300 marca de la figura redonda. En la parte superior, 1.3435-40 área ahora se convierte en resistencia inmediata por encima de la cual el par parece hacer un nuevo intento de recuperar 1.3500 manejar y apuntar hacia la prueba 1.3535 fuerte área de resistencia horizontal. Para obtener más información sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video 16:20 EUR / USD acelera la desventaja, probando 1,0570 Los vendedores alrededor de la moneda única han entrado rápidamente en hoy, ahora arrastrando EUR / USD a nuevos mínimos en el área 1.0570. El par se enfrentó a una ola de presión de ventas después de un fuerte repunte del dólar, que logró salir del área de mínimos diarios cuando fue rastreado por el índice de Dólar de EE. UU. (DXY) para probar sesiones tops alrededor 101,60. EUR también reaccionó negativamente al tono neutral de Draghirsquos en su testimonio ante el Parlamento Europeo sobre las perspectivas económicas de la región y las posibles consecuencias tras el voto de Brexit. Draghi reiteró que la economía del bloque sigue creciendo a un ritmo moderado aunque constante, mientras que mostró resistencia a raíz de la decisión del Reino Unido de abandonar la UE. También destacó que las medidas implementadas por el BCE han colaborado con la recuperación de la región, aunque sugirió que se necesitan políticas fiscales y estructurales para estimular aún más el PIB. El par está ahora perdiendo 0.09 en 1.0577 y un desglose de 1.0515 (2016 baja Nov.24) abriría la puerta para 1.0457 (2015 bajo Mar.16) y entonces 1.0332 (el mes bajo enero 2003). En el upside, las líneas de resistencia siguientes para arriba en 1.0685 (alto Nov.28) seguido por 1.0763 (alto Nov.16) y finalmente 1.0826 (alto Nov.14). Para saber más sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video: 16:09 El Presupuesto Primario de Brasil supera el aumento de los anteriores -26.643B a 39.589B en octubre 16:08 La región siguió siendo resistente en 2016 ECB M. Draghi En su primer testimonio hoy ante el Parlamento Europeo El presidente Mario Draghi dijo: "La economía europea se mantuvo firme este año, mientras que la economía mundial debería continuar su recuperación a pesar de las incertidumbres políticas y económicas significativas". La política de ldquoECB era el ingrediente clave del recoveryrdquo en curso. LdquoEl proyecto europeo necesita fundamentos económicos sólidos y un mayor apoyo a la integración europea. Draghi subrayó que las políticas fiscales y estructurales son necesarias para impulsar el PIB, mientras reiteró que la economía se está expandiendo a un ritmo moderado pero constante. Agregó que la tendencia económica ascendente gradual se establece para continuar y que el bloque del euro resistió a las precipitaciones de Brexit con resiliencia. 16:02 México Tasa de desempleo: 3,7 (octubre) vs anterior 4,1 16:01 Tasa de desempleo de México baja a 3,6 en octubre desde 3,9 anterior 15:54 Perspectiva de EUR / USD cambió a neutral UOB FX Los estrategas de UOB Group han cambiado su enfoque en EUR / USD a neutral de bajista, apuntando a un rango de 1.0550 / 1.0750 en las próximas semanas. LdquoLa parada-pérdida para nuestra vista bajista en 1.0650 fue accionada justo en el momento de la escritura (alto 1.0653) rdquo. LdquoLa fase bajista que comenzó hace dos semanas ha terminado. El movimiento actual es visto como el inicio de una fase de consolidación, probablemente dentro de una amplia 1.0550 / 1.0750 rangerdquo. LdquoEUR rebotó fuertemente para tocar un máximo de 1.0628 el viernes pasado. La recuperación parece estar adelantándose a sí misma y no se espera un movimiento sostenido. Dicho esto, una nueva prueba de 1.0625 / 30 no sería sorprendente, pero 1.0650 se espera que la tapa de un pull-back a 1.0555rdquo. Para obtener más información sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video: 15:45 Dólar de EE. UU. pérdidas pares, de vuelta alrededor de 101,50 El dólar, en términos del índice del dólar de EE. UU. Ha recuperado casi totalmente el pullback inicial, actualmente flotando sobre el mid-101.00s. El índice ha vuelto a encontrar un fuerte apoyo en la banda 100.70 / 60, y no sólo ha retomado la marca de 101.00, sino que también avanzó a la zona de 101.50, probando el territorio positivo por el momento. El cuadro más amplio alrededor del dólar se mantiene sin cambios hasta ahora, con expectativas de un alza de la tarifa en diciembre todavía que sostiene el sentimiento, aunque los participantes del mercado deben haber tasado ya en el acontecimiento. El próximo Fedspeak podría ser más indicativo del futuro del dólar más allá de las probables tasas más altas en diciembre, mientras que las perspectivas de una inflación más alta y un sólido desempeño de los rendimientos estadounidenses deberían sumarse al caso de un USD más fuerte. Dólar estadounidense niveles relevantes El índice cayó 0,01 a 101,47 y un desglose de 100,64 (baja 25 de noviembre) abriría la puerta a 99,38 (bajo Nov.14) y finalmente 99,63 (20 días sma). Por otro lado, el siguiente obstáculo se alinea a 102,19 (al mes de abril de 2003) por delante de 102,68 (máximo mensual de marzo de 2003). El oro se retiró y recortó la mayoría de las ganancias de recuperación tibia en medio de la renovación de los intereses de compra de la divisa estadounidense . En la actualidad el comercio alrededor de la región de 1188-89, el interés de la compra de la moneda verde resurgente está pesando sobre los productos denominados en dólares - como el oro, que de otro modo debería haber ganado una mayor tracción en la parte posterior de la demanda de refugio seguro en medio del sentimiento prevaleciente de riesgo, Mercados europeos de renta variable. Además, las crecientes expectativas de un pronóstico más acelerado de las tasas de interés de la Fed en 2017 están disminuyendo aún más la demanda de metal amarillo que no genera intereses y restringieron cualquier recuperación rápida desde el nivel más bajo desde febrero. Por otra parte, los participantes del mercado también parecían reacios a realizar grandes apuestas en los principales riesgos de esta semana, según revisó el martes el indicador del PIB estadounidense y uno de los indicadores económicos estadounidenses más intensamente observados el viernes. Desde el punto de vista técnico, la incapacidad del metal para construir el rebote tibio de la recuperación del lunes de los mínimos de varios meses ahora se vería como un rebote técnico de las condiciones de sobreventa a corto plazo. Por lo tanto, sería prudente concluir que el metal sigue siendo vulnerable a seguir derivando hacia abajo en el corto plazo. Niveles técnicos a observar Debilidad por debajo de 1185 apoyo inmediato es probable que se extiende por debajo de la sesión baja hacia la zona horizontal de 1180, en ruta de varios meses de apoyo de mínimos cerca de la región 1171-70. En el lado positivo, la recuperación sostenida por encima del nivel de 1195 podría ahora desencadenar una nueva pelea de cobertura corta y levantar el metal más allá de la marca de 1200 para probar su próximo obstáculo mayor cerca del nivel 1207. Para obtener más información sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video 15:18 Copper: objetivo de 12m 4,800 / t Goldman Sachs Research Team en Goldman Sachs, toma nota de que los precios del cobre han subido fuertemente y posicionamiento especulativo neto ha alcanzado su nivel más alto desde 2005 más Los últimos dos meses. Creemos que si bien parte del rally se ha justificado, los precios se han reunido demasiado pronto y esperamos que el cobre caiga a 5.000 USD / t en una visión de 3 meses. El mercado está, en nuestra opinión, posicionado para una mayor aceleración del crecimiento de la demanda de metales en China y / o global, con nuestras estimaciones de modelos sugiriendo que el mercado de cobre está triplicando el crecimiento mundial de la demanda de cobre a c.6 en 2017. En contraste, esperamos que el crecimiento de la demanda de cobre chino se ralentice en el corto plazo en la política de propiedad de China apretando, y que el estímulo de Trumprsquos es poco probable que el impacto de la demanda de metales directamente hasta que se inicie más tarde en el 2S17 o principios de 2018.Rquo ldquoFurther, El período estacionalmente débil para la demanda de cobre (1T), período durante el cual los inventarios construyen normalmente a la melodía de c.400kt incluso en un mercado equilibrado (y nuestro caso base es para un mercado pequeño-moderado excedente durante 2017).rdquo 15:07 Después de no poder sostener el movimiento temprano más allá de 50 días de SMA y 1.2500 manejar, el par GBP / USD estuvo bajo presión de venta renovada y ahora ha caído por debajo de 1.2400 manejar, borrando las ganancias de recuperación tibia publicado En las tres sesiones anteriores En la actualidad, se negoció marginalmente por debajo de dicho mango, el par rompió tres días consecutivos de ganancias de recuperación tibia e invirtió más de 130 pips desde el nivel más alto desde el 11 de noviembre tocó durante la sesión asiática temprana el lunes. Los precios spot perdieron terreno en la última hora en medio del resurgimiento del interés de compra del dólar en las crecientes expectativas de una acción más acelerada de lo esperado por la Reserva Federal, más allá de la reunión de diciembre. De hecho, el índice general del dólar de los Estados Unidos ha recuperado el terreno perdido y regresó al territorio positivo, acercándose a máximos plurianuales alcanzados la semana pasada. En ausencia de cualquier liberación de mercado de los EE. UU., la dinámica de precios en dólares seguiría siendo el único controlador por delante de esta semana los principales riesgos del evento - revisó EE. UU. el PIB del tercer trimestre el martes, BOE Financial Stability informe y los resultados del estrés bancario el miércoles y viernes EE. UU. Informe de trabajos (popularmente conocido como NFP). Niveles técnicos a observar Desde los niveles actuales, un seguimiento a través de la presión de venta es probable que arrastre el par de inmediato hacia 1.2360 (23 de noviembre baja) por delante de su próximo soporte importante cerca de 1.2310-1.2300 región (18 de noviembre amp 21 mínimos). En la parte superior, cualquier intento de recuperación por encima de 1.2400 manejar ahora podría enfrentar una fuerte resistencia cerca de 1.2450-60 región por encima de la cual el par es probable que haga un nuevo intento de recuperar 1.2500 marca psicológica. Para obtener más información sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video 14:49 Petróleo crudo: objetivo de 12 millones a 50 / bbl Goldman Sachs equipo de investigación en Goldman Sachs, señala que los fundamentos del petróleo se han debilitado drásticamente desde OPEP anunció un acuerdo tentativo para reducir la producción y GS ahora Espera un gran superávit de 0,7 mb / d en el 1T17 en ausencia de tal recorte. A pesar de todo, los datos de los últimos dos meses nos dejan más condicionados a que el mercado mundial de petróleo cambie a decitar hacia el 2S17 incluso con la producción de la OPEP por encima de los niveles actuales, por la combinación de un mayor crecimiento esperado de la demanda y menor producción de países de alto costo en declive Con mayor certeza de que los descuentos se materializarán, ahora hay un incentivo económico más fuerte para que los productores de la OPEP impidan un nuevo aumento de los inventarios en el primer semestre y en lugar de ello actúen para normalizar el alto nivel actual de existencias a través de un corte de producción de corta duración. Sin embargo, a nuestro juicio, el objetivo de normalizar los inventarios no debería dirigirse a los elevados precios del petróleo, ya que la atenuación de la curva de costos del petróleo y la velocidad sin precedentes de la respuesta de la oferta de esquisto haría que ese esfuerzo se autodestruyera rápidamente por encima de 55 / bbl. rdquo LdquoNuestro caso base ahora es que se anunciará e implementará un recorte de producción de la OPEP y la normalización de los niveles de inventario generará retrocesos para el 2T17. Los riesgos políticos todavía pueden hacer descarrilar una decisión económicamente sana y creemos que un resultado en el que la OPEP no acepta un recorte es el ndash bajista a corto plazo, incluso desde los niveles de precios actuales, ya que implica una mayor producción secuencial del grupo en competencia por ingresos y mercado Share. rdquo 14:48 USD / CAD reduce pérdidas, aproximaciones 1.3500 El dólar continúa recuperando terreno perdido inicialmente, ahora enviando USD / CAD para probar los límites de la barrera de 1.3500. USD / CAD se centra en la OPEP El par se ha visto bajo una nueva presión a la baja al comienzo de la semana tras una continuación del sesgo de venta en torno al dólar, aunque un apoyo decente parece haber surgido alrededor de 1,3460 por el momento. Los precios del crudo también están recortando parte del retroceso inicial, algo que limita las pérdidas de CAD al mismo tiempo. El barril de West Texas Intermediate permanece en el suelo negativo hasta ahora, aunque los han logrado recuperar la proximidad de la marca de 45.00. Nada esperaba datos sabios en Canadá y los EEUU hoy, aunque los inversionistas se mantendrán enfocados en la reunión próxima de la OPEP y las nóminas no agrícolas de los EEUU como los acontecimientos salientes en la semana. USD / CAD niveles significativos A partir de la escritura el par está perdiendo 0.20 en 1.3487 y una ruptura por debajo de 1.3374 (bajo 22 de noviembre) apuntaría para 1.3311 (38.2 Fibo de la caída 2016) y finalmente 1.3260 (bajo Nov.9). Por otro lado, la siguiente barrera se alinea a 1.3566 (alta Nov.18) por delante de 1.3575 (50 Fibo de la caída 2016) y finalmente 1.3590 (alta Nov.14). Para obtener más información sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video: 14:41 Gold: Bajar las previsiones de precios a corto plazo, a largo plazo reiterar 1,250 / oz Goldman Sachs Research Team en Goldman Sachs, cree que el Sr. Trump seguirá una agenda pro crecimiento, Apoyando una recuperación en el crecimiento que ya estaba en marcha y como resultado GS está rebajando sus pronósticos de precios de oro de 3 y 6 meses a corto plazo a 1.200 / oz, de 1.280 / oz (frente a 1.208 / oz spot) Ahora 1213 / oz de 1261 / oz previamente). Mientras que el oro ya se ha vendido bruscamente y las tasas reales han aumentado sustancialmente para reflejar este pensamiento, vemos los riesgos a muy corto plazo como sesgados a la baja, debido principalmente a nuestras preocupaciones sobre el potencial de liquidación física de la ETF. Específicamente, estimamos que la mayor parte de la construcción de este año de ETF está perdiendo dinero a precios corrientes y que si la mitad de esto fuera desenrollado esto daría lugar a una venta de c.60 / oz en el precio del oro. Habiendo dicho esto, Nuestro punto de vista de medio a largo plazo hacia el oro es relativamente agnóstico ya que las perspectivas dependen en gran medida de cómo responda la Fed a los estímulos potenciales de Estados Unidos ya medida que la economía alcanza el pleno empleo. Si la Fed fuese relativamente dovish, esto vería que las tasas reales permanecen bajas y son alcistas para el oro, mientras que lo contrario sería cierto si la Fed elevara las tasas más rápidamente. Específicamente, nuestros economistas esperan que las tasas reales de EE. UU. Durante los próximos 12 meses. Al mismo tiempo, es probable que una serie de otros factores apoyen el oro, en el margen, a medio y largo plazo. Los niveles de valoración de las clases de activos alternativos, como las acciones y los bonos, siguen siendo muy elevados según los estándares históricos, el crecimiento de la oferta minera probablemente será débil durante los próximos 12-24 meses, y Chinarsquos RMB debería depreciarse más, hasta 7.3 en el año 2017, FX teamrsquos pronóstico, potencialmente apoyando las compras de ETF de oro (especialmente en el contexto de un crecimiento desaceleración de los precios de las propiedades chinas). La OPEP a la vista Los precios del petróleo crudo están extendiendo el reciente descenso, con el barril de West Texas Intermediate Logrando recortar las pérdidas anteriores aunque todavía en rojo por debajo de la marca de 46,00. WTI todos los ojos en la reunión de la OPEP Los precios para el WTI están derramando más de 8 desde weekrsquos último tope más allá de la marca de 49,00 (martes) después de un creciente escepticismo en torno al grado de éxito (si alguno) en Wednesdayrsquos reunión de la OPEP en Viena. De hecho, las esperanzas de un acuerdo para limitar la producción de petróleo se han esfumado en los últimos días, tras los crecientes rumores de los países de la OPEP / no OPEP, todos pesando sobre el sentimiento y vertiendo agua fría sobre el optimismo inicial. Aparte de la reunión de la OPEP el miércoles, los precios del petróleo se mantendrán vigilantes en los informes habituales sobre los inventarios estadounidenses por parte de la API y la EIA, así como las nóminas no agrícolas durante noviembre (viernes). Los niveles de WTI a considerar En este momento el barril de WTI está perdiendo 0.39 a 45.90 con el siguiente soporte a 45.16 (baja 28 de noviembre), seguido por 44.96 (200 días sma) y finalmente 44.55 (baja Nov.18). En el upside, un breakout de 49.22 (alto Nov.22) apuntaría para 50.54 (alto Jun.22) y entonces 51.60 (alto Oct.10). Para saber más sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video: 14:31 Brasil Presupuesto Nominal Saldo subió de los anteriores -67.1B a 3.384B en octubre 14:31 EUR / USD se desliza por debajo de 1.0600 manejar por delante de Draghi El par EUR / USD corrió a través Ofertas frescas en el nivel más alto y no pudo construir en el momento temprano al nivel máximo de 7 días de 1.0685, tocado durante sesión asiática temprana. En la actualidad rondan los 1.0600, el par revirtió todas sus ganancias diarias y se mantuvo cerca del mínimo de 11 meses de la semana pasada en medio de la incertidumbre sobre el referéndum constitucional italiano el próximo domingo. Más temprano el lunes, el spot ganó cierta tracción y extendió la tendencia de recuperación del viernes, ya que los comerciantes continuaron recibiendo algunos beneficios de una subida de las elecciones después de las elecciones estadounidenses hasta el nivel más alto desde marzo de 2003. El presidente del BCE Mario Draghi Testimonio sobre la perspectiva del Banco Central Europeo sobre la evolución económica y monetaria y las consecuencias del Brexit ante el Comité Económico del Parlamento Europeo. Antes de la próxima reunión del BCE sobre política monetaria el 8 de diciembre, los comentarios de Draghi influirían en el sentimiento que rodea a la moneda común y finalmente proporcionarán un nuevo ímpetu para el mayor. Niveles técnicos para ver A seguir a través de la presión de venta por debajo de 1,0580 apoyo horizontal podría ahora convertir el par vulnerable a deslizar inmediatamente por debajo de 1,0550 manejar hacia el nuevo tanteo récord apoyo cerca de 1,0520 área. En la parte superior, 1.0625-30 área ahora se convierte en resistencia inmediata por encima de la cual el par parece hacer un nuevo intento de reclamar 1.0700 manejar. Para obtener más información sobre este tema, consulte nuestro análisis de video 14:23 USD / SGD: Cerca de 1,60 RBC CM Sue Trinh, Analista de Investigación de RBC Capital Markets, explica que después de RBC recientemente presentó el calendario previsto de la próxima tasa de subida de la media -2017 a diciembre de 2016, lo que simplemente refuerza su objetivo de largo plazo, fuera del consenso, de que el USD / SGD se comercialice a 1,60 en el segundo trimestre de 2017 (consenso: 1,43, spot: 1,4340). LdquoSGD es mucho más vulnerable al alza de los tipos de interés del USD y de los Estados Unidos que en el último ciclo de endurecimiento de la Fed y es también uno de los más expuestos en AXJ a la debilidad de la demanda global. Han tenido una meta de largo plazo de USD / SGD para operar en 1,60 en 2017 (consenso: 1,43, spot: 1,4340).rdquo ldquo Una posición corta de SGD frente a una canasta de EUR, MYR y USD también podría resultar atractiva dado que sirve como un 14:11 OPEP corte motiva actualización de pronóstico a corto plazo para el petróleo Goldman Sachs equipo de investigación en Goldman Sachs, sugiere que el aumento de la probabilidad de un recorte de la OPEP motiva a su Actualización a corto plazo del petróleo. El crecimiento de la demanda más alto de lo esperado y la menor producción de los países de alto costo aumentan nuestra condició n de que el mercado mundial de petróleo cambiará a decitencia hacia el 2S17 incluso con la producción de la OPEP por encima de los niveles actuales. Por lo tanto, existe ahora un incentivo más fuerte para que los productores de la OPEP detengan el crecimiento del inventario en el primer semestre y normalizen el alto nivel actual de inventarios con un corte de producción de corta duración. Creemos que un recorte debería generar retrocesos que ayuden a la OPEP a aumentar su cuota de mercado al marginar a los productores de más alto costo y reducir la volatilidad de los precios del petróleo, aumentando la valoración de su deuda y equidad. 14:07 Petróleo: La OPEP es un comodín. Comodín esta semana para los mercados de petróleo, explica el equipo de investigación en BBH. Desde el verano, el reflujo y el flujo de especulaciones sobre la capacidad de la OPEP para restablecer el orden en el mercado del petróleo impulsaron precios entre 42 y 52 por barril (base del contrato de futuros). El problema central es que Arabia Saudita no puede soportar sacrificar la cuota de mercado a otros países miembros de la OPEP, especialmente a Irán, e Irán por su parte no puede aceptar una congelación de la producción hasta que se recupere completamente del embargo. Parece ser la razón por la que Arabia Saudita se retiró de la reunión con Rusia que se iba a celebrar el lunes 28 de noviembre. El encuentro con Rusia sin un acuerdo total de los miembros de la OPEP para reducir la producción coloca al cártel en una posición de negociación desventajosa. Por otra parte, la restauración de la producción libia y la expansión de la producción de Kazajstán advierten que será difícil reducir la oferta. 14:03 USD / JPY: El próximo obstáculo significativo se sitúa en 116 - Equipo de Investigación SocGen en Societe Generale, explica que el USD / JPY ha logrado una proyección intermitente para el movimiento hacia arriba en 113.65 / 114 y formó un candelabro doji que está dando paso a un pullback inicial. LdquoNext obstáculo significativo se sitúa en 116 que resulta ser el potencial del doble fondo confirmado anteriormente. Sin embargo, en el gráfico horario, el par alcanzó un límite superior más pronunciado del canal ascendente y ha roto por debajo del canal apuntando hacia una pausa a corto plazo. El par está probando el primer soporte en 111.20 / 110.90, el retroceso de 23.6 del movimiento ascendente reciente. Una ruptura abajo significará la posibilidad de volver a probar el límite de canal diario en 109 que seguirá siendo un soporte importante cerca de término. 14:02 USD / CHF recupera el terreno perdido, vuelve a asir 1.0100 y más allá Después de haber registrado una sesión baja en la región 1.0080, Par CHF revertió todas sus pérdidas iniciales y ahora ha llenado la brecha bajista semanal. En la actualidad el comercio en territorio neutral, alrededor de 1.0140 región, una nueva pelea de interés de compra de dólares EE. UU. en la última hora ayudó a la pareja a recuperar su terreno perdido y recuperar el control sobre 1.0100 mango. Por otra parte, una fuerte recuperación de los precios del crudo a raíz de las noticias de que Arabia Saudita ofreció recortar la producción en 4,5 si Irán congela su producción a 3,8 millones de barriles diarios se veía alejando flujos de las tradicionales monedas refugio - como el franco suizo Apoyando la recuperación de la pareja de 4 días de baja tocada durante la sesión europea temprana el lunes. El siguiente punto de interés sería el testimonio del presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, que podría desencadenar una nueva oleada de volatilidad en el mercado de divisas y eventualmente dar algún impulso al mayor USD / CHF. Sin embargo, la tendencia más amplia seguirá dependiendo de los importantes lanzamientos macro de la semana en Estados Unidos - la revisión del PIB del tercer trimestre y los detalles mensuales del empleo de noviembre (NFP, por sus siglas en inglés), que ayudan a los inversionistas a evaluar las posibilidades y el calendario de la próxima Fed, Y determinar la trayectoria del par en el corto plazo. Yann Quelenn, Analista de Mercados de Swissquote Bank SA, observa que el rally USD / CHF se ha desvanecido. La estructura técnica sigue siendo alcista. Supervisamos el apoyo clave dado en la paridad. La resistencia por hora se encuentra en 1.0192 (24/11/2016 alta). Se espera que vea una mayor debilidad. Además, agrega, a largo plazo, el par se sigue negociando en el rango desde 2011 a pesar de cierta turbulencia cuando el SNB unpegged el CHF. El soporte clave se puede encontrar 0.8986 (30/01/2015 bajo). La estructura técnica favorece sin embargo un sesgo alcista de largo plazo desde el unpeg en enero de 2015.quot 14:01 Mercados esperando que el referéndum italiano no sea aprobado - BBH Research Team en BBH, señala que las expectativas de que el referéndum no será aprobado son generalizadas . LdquoLa clave desconocida es lo que sigue. Aunque Renzi ha amenazado con dimitir si el referéndum fracasa, sus señales han sido ambiguas. Si renuncia, la idea es que el PD elegiría a un cuidador, tal vez un ministro actual, que intentaría completar las reformas políticas y celebrar las elecciones parlamentarias como estaba programado para el 2018. Sin embargo, Renzi podría forzar unas elecciones anticipadas. Es un escenario que él minimizó, pero volvió a la delantera la semana pasada. El punto más importante es que la ansiedad de los inversionistas sobre la posibilidad de que el Movimiento de 5 Estrellas sea llevado al poder está adelantándose a los acontecimientos. Sin embargo, un gobierno débil o un gobierno provisional hace que los esfuerzos de reforma se ralentizen. Los activos italianos han tenido un desempeño inferior al reciente referéndum. La prima italiana de 10 años a Alemania se amplió casi 50 pb durante el mes pasado, y en 1,85, es la más grande en más de dos años y medio. El aumento del rendimiento soberano (el rendimiento a 10 años de Italia ha subido 63 pb en el último mes, el mayor en Europa) es uno de los factores que han pesado sobre las acciones de los bancos. El índice de acciones de los bancos italianos vuelve a su nivel más bajo desde principios de octubre. 13:56 DXY: 101.80 y 103.30 probablemente seguirán siendo niveles cruciales - SocGen Research Team en Societe Generale, señala que el Índice de Dólares traspasó temporalmente su supuesta resistencia de 101.80 que pasa a ser el retroceso de 61.8 de la tendencia bajista entera durante 2001 y 2008 y ha vuelto rápidamente formando una tapa de hilado la semana pasada. LdquoEl patrón se forma cuando los precios no se cierran en los niveles más altos alcanzados y generalmente denota primeros signos de debilitamiento en el momento después de un movimiento alargado. El indicador estocástico semanal también está cerca de un techo que ha sido instrumental en la definición de niveles de resistencia históricamente. 13:53 Zona Euro: El clima de inversión guiado por los últimos desarrollos - BBH Research Team en BBH, sugiere que el cambio en el clima de inversión global es el más importante de las proyecciones a 103.30 Guiándose por los últimos desarrollos en Europa. LdquoNo es la economía europea per se. El crecimiento de la eurozona está cerca de la tendencia, y el flash de noviembre PMIs elevar la esperanza de alguna mejora modesta. Sin embargo, el desempleo ha sido lento para mejorar. Después de terminar el año pasado en 10.5, se ha pegado en 10.0 desde julio. Octubre será reportado el jueves. El crecimiento de la oferta monetaria se estabilizó cerca de 5 desde mediados del año pasado, pero se reportó como desacelerando a 4,4 y / a en octubre. Este es el más lento desde marzo 2015.rdquo ldquoThose en el BCE que quieren ampliar las compras de activos anclar sus argumentos en las presiones de los precios débiles. El IPC preliminar será el último vistazo a la inflación antes de que el BCE se reúna el 8 de diciembre. La tasa global podría subir ligeramente hasta 0,6 frente a 0,5 en octubre. Sería un máximo de dos años, pero el aumento desde el 0,1 aumento en julio es en gran parte una función de los precios del petróleo, ya que la tasa básica se ha mantenido estable en 0,8 en los últimos meses y se espera que permanezca allí en noviembre. rdquo ldquoThe perspectiva Que el BCE podría alterar las reglas de auto-impuesto sobre sus compras de activos (lo que le permitiría comprar más bonos alemanes) ayudó a conducir el rendimiento alemán a dos años a nuevos mínimos récord la semana pasada. El rendimiento cayó a menos 76 pb antes del fin de semana antes de cerrar cerca de menos 74 pb. Aunque la mayor parte de la cobertura mediática se ha centrado en el aumento de los rendimientos estadounidenses, la semana pasada, el movimiento de la tasa alemana fue mayor. Su rendimiento a 2 años cayó casi 8 pb, mientras que el rendimiento estadounidense a 2 años subió menos de 5 bp. rdquo 13:42 El oro subió aún cerca de 1,200 Los precios de la onza troy del metal precioso están avanzando alrededor de 1 al comienzo de La semana, enviando el metal a las tapas frescas apenas debajo de la marca 1.200. El DOLAR se mantuvo a la defensiva el lunes, prolongando la debilidad observada durante la segunda mitad de la semana pasada, luego de que el índice del dólar estadounidense (DXY) alcanzó máximos de 13 años más allá de las 102.00 (jueves). Mientras tanto, los inversionistas continúan recibiendo parte de las fuertes ganancias recientes en el dólar, ayudando al metal amarillo y otros activos denominados en USD a rebotar desde mínimos recientes. Además, los participantes en el mercado siguen temerosos de los próximos eventos de riesgo más tarde en la semana, a saber, la reunión de la OPEP (miércoles), las nóminas no agrícolas (viernes) y el referéndum italiano (domingo). Vale la pena mencionar que el Lino cayó a la zona de 1.170 durante la semana pasada, niveles vistos por última vez en febrero, todo ello en el contexto de un dólar más fuerte. A partir de la escritura de oro está ganando 0,90 a 1,189.00 y un superando de 1.217,35 (alta Nov.21) se exponen 1.219,05 (50 Fibo retroceso de la 2016 hasta mover) y luego 1,229.30 (alta Nov.16). Por otro lado, el próximo soporte se alinea en 1,170.50 (baja 25 de noviembre), seguido por 1,129.90 (78,6 Fibo retroceso de la 2016 hasta mover) y, finalmente, 1,073.70 (bajo Jan.14). 13:40 BoC: El Gobernador Poloz en foco hoy - Equipo de Investigación de TDS en TDS, sugiere que el gobernador del Banco de Canadá Poloz está programado para hablar en una cena del Instituto CD Howe sobre el papel De los servicios en la economía canadiense. Debido al desempeño relativamente sólido en el sector servicios, es improbable que sus propios comentarios atenúen el sentimiento del mercado. Sin embargo, a la luz del fuerte aumento de las tasas canadienses desde las elecciones de EE. UU. y las perspectivas económicas suaves, es seguro esperar algunas preguntas difíciles en la audiencia QampA y conferencia de prensa. El embargo será levantado en su discurso a las 19:45 ET y la conferencia de prensa seguirá a las 21:00 ET. rdquo 13:37 EE. UU.: Impulsando el cambio en las asignaciones de cartera global - BBH Research Team en BBH, sostiene que los EE. UU. Entre la principal fuerza esta semana que está impulsando el cambio en las asignaciones de cartera global. LdquoHay una creciente confianza en que la Reserva Federal subirá las tasas el próximo mes, y más el próximo año. Sin embargo, el mercado no tiene dos alzas de la Fed con precios para el próximo año, lo que sugiere margen para un ajuste adicional. Dos ascensos el próximo año probablemente serán el caso base para muchas previsiones. El dramático aumento de los rendimientos del Tesoro a largo plazo es la consecuencia directa de la anticipación del estímulo fiscal cuando la economía ya está creciendo hacia la tendencia. Ambos candidatos a la presidencia de los Estados Unidos39 solicitan un estímulo fiscal. Aunque muchas de las comparaciones entre Trump y Reagan son superficiales y faddish, un núcleo de la verdad puede ser encontrado en la mezcla de la política. Sin embargo, la economía que Trump heredará es significativamente diferente de lo que Reagan recibió. Los tipos de interés a largo plazo siguen siendo inferiores a los que solían estar asociados con las actuales condiciones económicas y las presiones de los precios. rdquo ldquoThis week39s data is unlikely to alter views but may strengthen the appreciation of the solid economic performance since struggling in Q4 15 through Q2 16. Growth in Q3 is expected to be tweaked up to 3.0 in this week39s revision. The US economic data continues to be mostly reported stronger than expected. The NY Fed estimates that US economy is tracking 2.5 growth here in Q4, while as of the middle of last week, the Atlanta39s Fed model was more optimistic tracking 3.6.rdquo ldquoAt the same time, investors will be reminded of the proximity of the Fed39s objectives. The core PCE deflator is expected to have remained steady in October at 1.7. The Fed39s target is 2. At the end of the week, the US reports the November jobs data. It is expected to show solid, even if not spectacular job growth of 175k-185k. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.9, and hourly earnings are forecast to be steady at the 2.8 year-over-year, the highest rate in seven years reached in October. The bond market and the dollar, given the recent tight link, may be particularly sensitive to a downside surprise in the unemployment rate or an upside surprise in earnings. rdquo ldquoMany are concerned about the protectionist signals sent by candidate Trump. The widening of the trade deficit in the coming months as a result of growth differentials may make for fertile ground for the rhetoric to be operationalized. The implication of less commitment to free trade while the US is a net international debtor (the world owns more US assets than American own foreign assets) is not clear. Those issues seem to be a medium term challenge, and by the time they are salient the world could look a lot different. rdquo 13:33 AUD/USD trims some of its strong gains to 0.75 neighborhood The AUD/USD pair maintained its bid tone for the third straight session but has now trimmed some of its strong gains to .7500 neighborhood to currently trade around 0.7465 region. With December Fed rate-hike action fully priced-in, growing expectations of faster-than-expected rate-hike next year helped limit greenback retracement and restrict the pair39s ongoing recovery momentum from last week39s nearly 5-month. However, upbeat sentiment surrounding base metals, especially Copper, is indicative of investors39 appetite for riskier / higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie. With an empty US economic calendar . traders on Monday will remain focused on ECB President Mario Draghi39s testimony before the European Parliament39s Economic Committee, which although not directly related might continue to impact investor risk-appetite and drive the major from current levels. However, this week39s important US macro data - revised GDP print on Tuesday and Friday39s monthly jobs report ( NFP ) would be the next important fundamental triggers helping investors to determine the next leg of directional move for the major. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes, quotTechnically, the daily chart shows that the 20 SMA maintains a sharp bearish slope well above the current level, now around 0.7530, while technical indicators have kept correcting higher and maintain upward slopes, but hold within bearish territory. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is biased higher according to technical readings, given that the price is developing above a bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have bounced strongly from their mid-lines, maintaining their upward momentum. quot To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 13:27 EUR/USD: Three sub-plots to the story - SocGen Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, explains that in 2015-2016, real yield differentials correlate better than nominal ones and in the last few weeks the Euro has under-performed these as the trend in peripheral spread in European bond markets has once again become important which gives the EUR/USD story three separate subplots this week. ldquoFirstly, the resounding victory of Francois Fillon in the second round of the French Republican Primary installs him as front-runner for the Presidential election next year, with polls suggesting he would win a second round run-off against Marine Le pen. Thatrsquos helping the Euro but the focus will now be on the independent candidates who may emerge, in particular Francois Bayrou from the centre-left. If he were to dilute the right-wing vote enough, and the leftwing were to field a credible candidate, M Fillonrsquos passage to a second round run-off wouldnrsquot be as clear cut as the polls currently suggest. rdquo ldquoThe second sub-plot is the Italian constitutional reform referendum this weekend. BTP/Bund spreads are close to their wides as the implications of a possible lsquonorsquo votes are debated. New elections are unlikely and the most recent opinion poll suggests only 15 of Italians want to leave the Euro, but the FT warns of the threat of a lsquonorsquo vote to Italian banks, and there are concerns about implications for the countryrsquos credit rating, too. The third sub-plot is much more mundane but on Friday we can get back to the US labour market. We look for another 165k increase in non-farm-employment, a 4.8 unemployment rate and 2.8 wage growth. Consistent with a December rate hike but a familiar story all the same and one that leaves us thinking that well over 90 of the widening trend in Treasuries/Bunds is already behind us. Further EUR/USD weakness will be much more about European politics than the relative growth trends. rdquo 13:23 EUR/GBP keeps highs near 0.8560 ahead of Draghi The offered bias around the British Pound has helped EUR/GBP to clinch fresh 3-day tops in the 0.8550/60 band. EUR/GBP attention to Draghi, BoE The European cross is extending its rebound from last weekrsquos multi-week troughs in the mid-0.8400s following a deep pullback in the single currency, in contrast with the persistent resilience surrounding GBP. Later in the session, President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on the economic outlook of the region and the potential consequences following the Brexit vote, along with speeches of board members J. Dickson, P. Praet and B. Coeure. Previously, EMUrsquos M3 Money Supply has expanded 4.4 on a year to October, while Private Loans rose 1.8 during In the UK, the BoErsquos Financial Stability Report is due on Wednesday followed by Novemberrsquos manufacturing PMI due on Thursday. The cross is now gaining 0.84 at 0.8561 facing the immediate hurdle at 0.8632 (100-day sma) ahead of 0.8662 (20-day sma) and finally 0.8710 (high Nov.15). On the other hand, a break below 0.8456 (low Nov.23) followed by 0.8329 (low Sep.6) and then 0.8270 (200-day sma). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis: 13:22 USD: Temporary correction lower offers buying opportunity - MUFG Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that the US dollar has continued to weaken in the Asian trading session with the dollar index extending its decline for the third consecutive day. ldquoIt represents the longest sustained sell off for the US dollar since the start of this month and follows the sharp adjustment higher both in the run up to and following the US election. There has been no fundamental trigger for the reversal of US dollar strength suggesting that it is most likely a temporary correction which is unlikely to derail the upward trend. The dollar index has recently broken above the rough consolidation range between the 95.00 and 100.00-levels which had held in place since early in 2015. A pullback towards the 100.00-level would present a buying opportunity in the near-term. We continue to believe that the likelihood of a significant loosening of US fiscal policy and tighter Fed policy under President Trump combined with stronger US growth will provide support for a stronger US dollar in the year ahead. rdquo ldquoEconomic data releases in the week ahead are expected to reveal that the US economy has expanded more solidly in the second half of this year and inflation pressures are picking up too. Economic growth in Q3 is expected to be revised modestly higher to an annualized rate of 3.0. The latest personal spending report for October is expected to reveal that consumer spending has returned to more solid growth early in Q4 after growth moderated in Q3. Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fedrsquos latest Nowcast models are signalling that the US economy remains on track to continue to expand more solidly in Q4 which are currently estimating growth of 3.6 and 2.5 respectively. The latest PCE deflator report is expected to reveal that disinflationary pressures from the sharp declines in the price of oil and stronger US dollar continue to fade lifting the headline rate back to its highest level since October 2014 and moving closer into line with the core rate. rdquo ldquoThe main economic data release will be the latest US employment report for November which will be scrutinized for further evidence that the US labour market has tightened further. The report is expected to reveal that employment growth remains solid although at a slower pace than over the last year and earnings growth is expected to remain at a faster rate closer to levels prior to the global finial crisis. Already tight labour market conditions are fuelling expectations that a significant loosening of fiscal policy will increase upside risks to inflation. The five-year breakeven inflation rate has reached its highest level since September 2014 at close to 1.75. At the same time the five-year real yield has also adjusted higher moving back towards positive territory offering support for a stronger US dollar. rdquo 13:01 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 3.8to 4.1 in October 13:01 EUR/USD momentum is supportive for attempt higher On the 4hr EUR/USD chart, the MACD has moved above zero making the near-term structure supportive for an attempt higher. Such a momentum indication, unseen for at least for 30 periods, indicates that key price breaks are on the horizon. There is a real threat of EUR/USD rate moving now considerably higher as buyers may get aggressive in the short term. 13:01 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) dipped from previous -0.2to -0.3 in October 12:58 USD/CAD tests key 20-DMA support as Oil turns positive The CAD bulls are seen retaining control amid a recovery in oil prices during the European session, knocking-off USD/CAD near session lows. USD/CAD supported near 10-DMA at 1.3477 Currently, the USD/CAD pair is last seen exchanging hands at 1.3471, down -0.32 so far, consolidating the Asian sell-off before the next leg lower. The Loonie benefits from a minor-rebound staged by oil prices, after renewed optimism spread across the markets, with traders now hoping once again that an OPEC output deal will be clinched on Wednesday. According to the latest headlines, as cited by FT sources, Saudi Arabia has offered to cut 4.5 from production levels of 10.5mln BPD, pressurizing Iran and Iraq to accept larger share of production cuts. While Goldman Sachs also noted that an OPEC deal on Nov. 30 looks more likely than before. Moreover, broad based US dollar correction also acts as a drag on the USD/CAD pair. The USD index, which measures greenbackrsquos relative performance against a basket of six major currencies, drops to 101.12, down -0.36 on the day, having faded a spike to 101.20 last hour. USD/CAD Technical Levels To the upside, the next resistances are seen near 1.3523 (daily high) and 1.3566 (Nov 18 high) and from there to 1.3590 (Nov 14 high). To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.3450 (psychological levels/ Nov 25 low) and below that at 1.3400 (zero figure) and at 1.3374 (Nov 22 low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 12:57 USD/JPY extends recovery further beyond 112.00 handle The USD/JPY pair reversed majority of its early losses to session low level of 111.35 and is now building on to its momentum back above 112.00 handle. Currently trading around 112.15-20 band, the pair initially weakened sharply during early Asian session on Monday as renewed uncertainty over OPEC-deal drove investors to the perceived safety of Japanese Yen. Risk-off mood further amplified US Dollar profit-taking slide from post-US election up-surge to the highest level since mid-March touched on Friday. As the day progressed, recovery in crude oil prices helped improve investor risk-appetite and assisted the pair to extend its recovery move back above 112.00 handle. In fact, WTI crude oil has now reversed all of its early losses and has now managed to move back above 46.00/barrel mark. Investor risk-appetite got an additional boost from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OECD39s upgrade of 2017 global GDP forecast from previous 3.2 to 3.3. However, the prevalent cautious sentiment around European equity markets restricted further upside and the pair remained in bearish territory for the second straight session. Going forward, in absence of any major US economic releases the pair would continue to take clues from the broader market risk sentiment and USD price dynamics, which remains underpinned by growing expectations of tighther Fed monetary policy stance even beyond December meeting. Slobodan Drvenica, Information amp Analysis Manager at Windsor Brokers Ltd. notes, quotReversing daily RSI and Slow Stochastic support scenario, which requires close below daily Tenkan-sen line for fresh bearish signal. Next support lies at 110.88 (Fibo 23.6 of 101.17/113.88 rally), clear break of which would trigger bearish acceleration towards psychological 110.00 support. Bounce from 111.34 was so far capped by thick hourly cloud that weighs on near-term structure. Alternative scenario requires bounce and close above 113.00 barrier to signal higher low and shift focus towards 113.88 peak. quot To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 12:55 EUR: Political risk in focus ahead of Italian constitutional referendum MUFG Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, suggests that the main focus in the week ahead for the euro will be the upcoming Italian constitutional referendum on the 4th December which poses some downside risk for the euro heading into next year. ldquoIt follows the second round of the Republicans party primary in France which resulted in a clear victory for Francois Fillon who secured around two thirds of the vote compared to one third for Alain Juppe. He has pledged market friendly economic reforms including EUR40 billion in business tax cuts. The corporate tax rate could be cut to 25 from 34.4 at present. rdquo ldquoThe final opinion polls ahead of the Italian constitutional referendum signal that the public is likely to narrowly reject the reforms by a slim margin of around 52 to 48. However, there is a large portion of undecided voters which adds to the uncertainty. As the referendum is seen a vote of confidence in the government as well, it increases the likelihood that the reforms will be rejected. The FT has reported today that up to eight of Italyrsquos troubled banks would risk failing if market turbulence deters investors from recapitalising them according to officials and senor bankers. rdquo 12:51 Eurozone credit growth hits glass ceiling while money growth weakens - ING Teunis Brosens, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the Eurozone bank lending to households and businesses continues to grow, at 2.0 year-on-year in October. ldquoCredit growth has been stable around 2 for abour a year now. Most lending is still taking place in France, with Germany a close second. Lending also remains strong in Belgium, while net lending remains slightly negative in Spain. rdquo ldquoThe ECB39s controversial monetary policy has no doubt contributed to the recovery of Eurozone bank lending. But it appears that, despite ongoing ECB purchases, bank lending growth struggles to move beyond the 2-mark. rdquo ldquoAt the same time, and in contrast to last week39s positive survey data, the monetary leading indicators continue to weaken. While the relationship betwen monetary flows and economic growth is difficult to interpret in times of QE and negative rates, monetary developments are pointing in the wrong direction. rdquo ldquoThe weakening of monetary indicators strengthen the case for an extension of QE. We think the ECB will announce such an extension next week. rdquo 12:37 EUR/USD keeps correcting lower to 1.0630, Draghi eyed The European currency remains in corrective mode so far on Monday, now taking EUR/USD to the 1.0630 area after climbing to the vicinity of 1.0690 in early trade. EUR/USD focus on Draghi Spot lost upside momentum following overnight tops in the proximity of 1.0690 at the beginning of the week, as the greenback has managed to trim early losses, in turn pushing the US Dollar Index back above the critical 101.00 barrier. In spite of the ongoing correction lower, the pair keeps the trade above the 1.0600 handle, looking to put further distance from last weekrsquos fresh YTD tops near 1.0510. Ahead in the day, ECBrsquos Mario Draghi is expected to speak twice before the European Parliament on the economic outlook of the region and the potential consequences following the Brexit vote. Still with the ECB, board members J. Dickson, P. Praet and B. Coeure are also due to speak. Previously, EMUrsquos M3 Money Supply has expanded 4.4 on a year to October, while Private Loans rose 1.8 during the same period. EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now up 0.44 at 1.0634 facing the initial resistance at 1.0685 (high Nov.28) followed by 1.0763 (high Nov.16) and finally 1.0826 (high Nov.14). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0515 (2016 low Nov.24) would open the door for 1.0457 (2015 low Mar.16) and then 1.0332 (monthly low January 2003). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis: 12:20 OECD raises global growth forecast for 2017 The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published its latest forecast report, sounding upbeat on the global economic growth see for next year. 2016 GDP unch 2.9 US GDP 1.5 vs 1.4 prior 2016. 2.3 vs 2.1 prior 2017 EZ 1.7 vs 1.5 prior 2016. 1.6 vs 1.4 prior 2017 Japan 0.8 vs 0.6 prior 2016. 1.0 vs 0.7 prior 2017 UK 2.0 vs 1.8 prior 2016. 1.2 vs 1.0 prior 2017 China 6.7 vs 6.5 prior 2016. 6.4 vs 6.2 prior 2017 ldquoThe Bank of Japan should maintain monetary easing, as intended, until inflation is stable above the 2 percent target, while taking account of costs and risks in terms of possible financial distortionsrdquo Key Quotes on the US economy: ldquoThe extent to which the fiscal program set out by the new administration during the election campaign is implemented will not become clear for some time, as agreement by Congress will be required to introduce necessary legislation and in some areas, notably tax reform, complex legislative changes may be neededrdquo ldquoNonetheless, it seems likely that there will be some easing of fiscal policy over the next two years, with implications for growth prospects and inflation in the United States and other economies. rdquo quotMonetary policy tightening is expected to commence towards the end of 2017 and this is appropriate given likely monetary policy developments elsewherequot 12:08 GBP/USD drops sharply towards 1.24 amid cross-driven weakness The GBP/USD pair came under fresh selling pressure over the last hour, extending a break below 1.25 handle in a bid to test 10-DMA support located at 1.2430 levels. GBP/USD down almost 1 big figure The cable is seen extending its retreat from more-than one week highs, and now drops sharply towards 1.24 handle, losing almost 100-pips so far this session. The renewed selling-wave in the major is mainly driven by fresh buying seen in the EUR/GBP cross, in wake of month-end flows as the German central bank buys EUR/GBP for its UK EU membership fees. Moreover, resurgent demand for the greenback across the board also drags the GBP/USD pair lower. Meanwhile, the US dollar index jumps to 101.18, having finally broken its range-trade seen near 101 handle. Focus now remains on the US GDP report due tomorrow, followed by Wednesdayrsquos OPEC decision and Thursdayrsquos BOE Financial Stability report and bank stress results for fresh incentives on the spot. GBP/USD Levels to consider In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are lined up at 1.2532 (2-week highs), 1.2600 (round number) and 1.2675 (Nov high). While supports are seen at 1.2393 (50-DMA) and 1.2357 (Nov 23 low) and below that at 1.2308 (Nov 21 low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 12:04 EUR/SEK dips to lows on upbeat data, around 9.7800 After posting fresh daily highs above the 9.800 handle on Monday, EUR/SEK dropped to the mid-9.7700s following upbeat results in Sweden EUR/SEK lower after data SEK picked up extra pace after Retail Sales in the Nordic economy surpassed expectations in October, expanding at a monthly 0.7 and reverting the previous 0.3 contraction. Over the last twelve month, retail sales rose 2.4 vs. 1.6 previous. On the not so bright side, Swedish trade balance figures showed a SEK 2.7 billion deficit during last month. In the meantime, SEK remains under the microscope as the Riksbank will hold its meeting next month. Consensus remains pretty divided regarding the likeliness of further easing by the Nordic central bank, either via rate cuts or extra purchases of bonds. EUR/SEK levels to consider As of writing the cross is retreating 0.14 at 9.7827 and a break below 9.7375 (55-day sma) would expose 9.7347 (low Nov.24) and then 9.6323 (100-day sma). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 9.8483 (20-day sma) followed by 9.8906 (low Nov.17) and finally10.0096 (high Nov.7). 11:54 Azerbaijan s OilMin has cancelled trip to Vienna will not take part in OPEC meetings Reuters reports latest headlines surrounding the OPEC meeting, citing that Azerbaijan39s oil minister wonrsquot be attending Wednesdayrsquos key meeting. 11:50 Gold sold-off once again near hourly 100-SMA Gold failed another attempt to take-out hourly 100-SMA barrier, and now drifts back towards 1190 support amid persistent risk-off trades and retreat in the US treasury yields. Gold lacks clear direction Currently, Comex gold futures trade 1.11 higher at 1191.50, having reversed a spike to session highs at 1196.50. Gold prices are seen oscillating back and forth in a 7 slim range, consolidating sharp moves witnessed in the last Asian session. The bullion moved-off highs as a renewed risk-off wave faded, although the sentiment continues to remain underpinned by the ongoing retreat in the US treasury yields, which makes gold more attractive as an alternative investment asset. Further, gold finds buyers as investors seek to protect their wealth amid OPEC-led uncertainty in the markets, with them remaining wary over an OPEC output cut deal that is expected to reach this Wednesday. Nothing of note for the yellow-metal in the day ahead, and therefore, attention turns towards tomorrowrsquos US GDP report and Wednesday OPEC meeting for fresh direction. Comex Gold Technical Levels The metal has an immediate resistance at 1200 (key resistance) and 1210 (round figure). Meanwhile, the support stands at 1186.3 0 (5-DMA) below which doors could open for 1177 (multi-month low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 11:36 GBP: Breakdown of Q3 GDP highlights resilience of the UK economy - MUFG Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that the pound is continuing to trade on a firmer footing in the near-term following the release late last week of the latest UK GDP report for Q3. ldquoThe report provided further evidence of the UK economyrsquos resilience in both the run up and following the Brexit vote. The main surprise in the breakdown of GDP growth was that business investment defied expectations expanding for the second consecutive quarter by 0.9 in Q3. The BoE has been warning that business investment would be the most vulnerable to heightened uncertainty related to the Brexit vote, but so far the negative impact is not yet evident. rdquo ldquoEconomic growth was undermined by a large inventory drag in Q3 which followed a large build in Q2. For the two quarters as whole, the economy expanded solidly by an average annualized rate of 2.3. If the UK economy continues to defy expectations for a material slowdown in growth in the year ahead, it will create scope for pound weakness to reverse further. rdquo 11:33 Senior PBOC researcher: Must break feedback loop behind yuan falls - RTRS In an interview with Reuters on Monday, Wang Zhenying, head of the Statistics and Research Department of the People39s Bank of China39s ( PBOC) Shanghai Head Office, noted that China needs to stem capital outflow in order to break the Yuan from the feedback loop. quotAt the moment, the fall in the Yuanrsquos exchange rate is shaping market expectations. Depreciation triggers capital flight, and capital flight exerts even bigger pressure on the yuanquot quotTherefore, it39s necessary to break this feedback loop. for example, by slowing capital outflowsquot quotThere was a feedback loop between stock price rises, and margin financing. And when such a feedback loop was formed, trading momentum, or a trend, was formed in the marketquot quotThe development of the human race is propelled by an increasingly inter-connected trading network. But if we cut the network, the world economy will be separated into isolated islands, and our economic growth will slow downquot 11:32 China reaches out as the USA withdraws - AmpGFX Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that emerging economies that represent now at least an equal share of the global economy and do not have the same anti-establishment driven politics, will be more prepared to work with each other. ldquoThe USA in particular risks accelerating its decline of power and influence in other parts of the world that have the greatest growth potential. By immediately pulling out of the TPP, the USA has set in motion more intense efforts by other nations in the Asia-Pacific to pursue trade deals that exclude the USA. rdquo ldquoThis is a key moment for China to accelerate its influence in Asia and other regions with less competitive pressure from the USA. The USA already decided to stay out of the AIIB that has over 50 member countries including most other developed countries, a multi-lateral organization that was started by China and may prove to be a potent vehicle for it to drive development and cooperation just at the time when the USA turns inward. rdquo ldquoAs such, the anti-globalization policies Trump intends to pursue may turn out to be a major detriment for USA companies that will have long-lived implications. rdquo ldquoTrump appears to have the attitude that the USA is so big and powerful that the rest of the world will still be knocking on its door. rdquo ldquoHowever that time may have passed, just as it has passed on views that China and Japan are currency manipulators and by easing restrictions on energy production millions of US jobs will be created. rdquo 11:31 Oil weaker below 46.00 mark, OPEC meeting holds the key WTI crude oil witnessed a bearish gap opening on Monday, adding on to Friday39s steep losses, and broke below 46.00/barrel mark ahead of this week39s OPEC meeting in Vienna. Currently trading around 45.60 region, the black gold came under intense selling pressure during opening trade on Monday as Saudi Arabia, the world39s largest oil producer and de-facto leader of OPEC cartel, backed out of Monday39s OPEC meeting and poured cold water over possibilities of any deal on production cuts / output freeze at Wednesdayrsquos official meeting. However, a broad based US Dollar retracement was seen supporting demand for dollar-denominated commodities and limited further downslide just above 45.00 handle. Adding to this, headlines (via. Reuters) that Algeria and Venezuela will discuss output freeze today, extended additional support to the commodity39s recovery from session low. Technical levels to watch Any recovery attempt might now confront strong resistance near 46.00 handle above which a bout of short-covering could assist the commodity to stage a recovery back towards 46.55-60 resistance ahead of 47.00 handle. On the downside, renewed weakness below 45.35 immediate support might now drag the commodity below session low support near 45.15 region towards testing 45.00 psychological mark support. To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 11:14 Libyas OPEC Governor: Still hopeful of deal on Wednesday - BBG Libyarsquos OPEC Governor Mohamed Oun crossed the wires last minutes, via Bloomberg, noting that he is still optimistic that an output deal will be reached on Wednesday. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks are seen making minor-recovery attempts, both still down -0.80 on the day. 11:06 USD/JPY reverses a dip to 111.75, risk-off persists USD/JPY failed to sustain the recovery and skid back below 112 handle amid resurgence of broad based demand for the safe-haven yen, as both oil and stocks tumble. USD/JPY stuck in tight range A renewed bout of risk-aversion hit Europe amid renewed Italian banking concerns and tumbling oil prices, which refueled the safe-haven bids for the yen versus the US dollar, sending the rate to session lows of 111.74, before recovering some ground to now trade at 111.97, still down -1.10 on the day. Markets remain vigilant in wake of any OPEC-related news flow, which has a strong bearing on the investorsrsquo sentiment, and hence, prefer to hold the safety bets in times of uncertainty and market unrest. While amid a lack of fundamental drivers in the day ahead, the spot will remain at the mercy of persisting RO-RO sentiment and USD dynamics. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 112.71 (5-DMA). A break above the last, the major could test 113.23 (daily high) and 113.91 (multi-month high) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 111.50 (psychological levels) next at 111.15 (1h 200-SMA) and below that at 110.80 (Nov 23 low). 11:05 European Monetary Union M3 Money Supply (3m) down to 4.8 in October from previous 5 11:01 European Monetary Union M3 Money Supply (YoY) below forecasts (5) in October: Actual (4.4) 11:01 Italy Business Confidence: 102 (November) vs previous 103 11:01 European Monetary Union Private loans (YoY) below forecasts (1.9) in October: Actual (1.8) 10:57 FX intervention is expected to support EUR/DKK if Italy votes No Danske Bank Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Jakob Christensen assesses the potential scenario for the Danish Krone in case of a lsquoNorsquo win at the Italian referendum on Sunday. ldquoOn Sunday, Italy is set to hold a referendum on changes to the constitutionrdquo. ldquoOpinion polls indicate that it will be a 39no39, which could result in political uncertainty in Italy if the government steps downrdquo. ldquoThat could weigh on the EUR/DKK spot and FX forwards if the markets speculate that the situation could potentially lead to an Italian exit from the EU and the EURrdquo. ldquoWe doubt that it will come to this though, as EU opposition in Italy has fallen in recent monthsrdquo. ldquoNevertheless, if the market looks to DKK as a safe haven from EUR woes, we expect Danmarks Nationalbank to cap EUR/DKK downside at around 7.4350 using FX interventionrdquo. 10:49 USD/CHF corrects further below 1.0100 handle The greenback extended its corrective slide further on Monday, with the USD/CHF pair now sliding below 1.0100 handle. Currently trading at 4-day low, around 1.0085-80 region, the pair moved further away from nearly 10-month high touched in the previous week as investors continue to cash in following the pair39s recent up-surge of around 650-pips to 1.0200 neighborhood. A softer tone around European equity markets and uncertainty over the Italian constitutional referendum is driving safe-haven flows towards the Swiss Franc. Moreover, the greenback also paused its post-election up-surge to the highest level since March 2003 and witnessed a corrective slide. In fact, the overall US Dollar Index is now trading with a loss of around 0.6. Investors now look forward to this week39s key US macro releases - revised GDP growth and NFP data, for fresh insights over the Fed39s monetary policy stance beyond December meeting. In the meantime, broader market sentiment surrounding the risk-associated space would derive the safe-haven demand and drive the major from current levels. Technical levels to watch From current levels, 1.0067 (Nov. 22 low) seems to act as immediate support, which if broken could accelerate the slide further towards 1.0015-10 support area before the pair eventually breaks through parity mark and aims to test 0.9960 horizontal support. On the upside, recovery momentum back above 1.0100 handle might now confront resistance near 1.0140 (session peak), which if cleared decisively should assist the pair back towards recent daily closing high resistance near 1.0170 region. 10:47 GBP/USD clings to gains above 1.2500 The Sterling is following north the rest of the riskier assets on Monday, lifting GBP/USD to daily highs around 1.2530 during early trade. GBP/USD focus on Brexit, BoE The pair is clinching its fourth consecutive session with gains, managing to gather further traction after last weekrsquos troughs near 1.2300 the figure, backed by a resilient sentiment around GBP despite the stronger greenback as of late. In fact, GBP found extra support after US president-elect D. Trump advocated for stronger link trades between the two countries in the wake of his win in early November, while the debate between a lsquosoftrsquo and a lsquohardrsquo Brexit seems to have fizzled out somewhat in recent days, particularly after the UK High Court ruled against the Government regarding Article 50. Looking ahead, the BoErsquos Financial Stability Report (Wednesday) and Novemberrsquos Manufacturing PMI (Thursday) will be the salient points among other releases in the UK calendar this week. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is gaining 0.30 at 1.2513 facing the next hurdle at 1.2532 (high Nov.28) followed by 1.2543 (55-day sma) and then 1.2675 (high Nov.11). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.2308 (low Nov.21) would open the door to 1.2297 (low Nov.18) and finally 1.2081 (low Oct.25). 10:47 European stocks drop amid resurgence of Italian banking crisis The European stocks had a negative start to a brand new week, now extending losses amid resurgence of concerns over Italian banking sector crisis, in wake of next monthrsquos Italian referendum. Markets fret over multiple bank failures if the Italian PM Renzi loses the upcoming referendum, which continues to dampen investorsrsquo confidence. The crisis-hit Italian bank, Monte Paschi, halted trading after falling 7.50 in Milan trade, while the overall Italian banking index was down 3 so far, meandering near eight-week lows. Further, rising concerns whether OPEC will be able to reach the oil output deal on Wednesday at its meeting in Vienna dragged the region indices lower, especially the commodity-heavy FTSE 100 index. Meanwhile, Germany39s DAX 30 index drops -0.91 to 10,600 levels, while the UK39s FTSE 100 index dives -1 to 6,773. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index declines -1.05 to 4,504 while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index drop -0.91 to now trade around 3,017 points. 10:32 Sweden Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.4 in October from previous 0.6 10:31 Sweden Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 0.7 in October from previous -0.6 10:28 NOK remains vigilant on OPEC Danske Bank Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Jakob Christensen noted this weekrsquos OPEC meeting to be a key driver for NOK in the near term. ldquoOn Wednesday, OPEC is set to meet to discuss a deal to limit oil output to support oil prices. We doubt that OPEC will be able to agree on anything that will have a substantial impact on oil pricesrdquo. ldquoBased on recent headlines, it seems probable that it will come to some sort of agreement on a small output cut. It may spur a temporary small rise in oil prices, which we believe will fade as the market realises that compliance within the cartel is not strong enough for a deal to surviverdquo ldquoLack of support to the oil market from OPEC along with a strong seasonal factor supports our view that EUR/NOK will stay supported towards the end of the year. We forecast EUR/NOK at 9.20 on 1Mrdquo. 10:26 Algeria and Venezuela will discuss output freeze today - RTRS Russiarsquos private news agency, Interfax, reports latest headlines on oil markets, as cited by Reuters, Algeria and Venezuela oil ministers will visit Moscow today to discuss output freeze. 10:23 US Dollar weaker, approaching 101.00 The US Dollar Index (DXY) ndash which tracks the buck vs. its main rivals ndash is sharply lower at the beginning of the week, currently looking to regain the 101.00 handle. US Dollar supported around 100.70/60 The greenback is extending the correction lower after reaching fresh 13-year tops beyond the 102.00 handle during last week, so far retreating for the first week after three consecutive advances. However, dips in USD should be shallow in light of the broader perspective of higher inflation figures in the US for the coming periods, while the uptrend in US yields keep supporting the case for a stronger buck. Adding to the above, expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the December meeting remain nearly 94 according to CME Grouprsquos FedWatch tool, although this event seems to be already priced in by market participants. Another positive indicator of the good health of the US economy is the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model forecast, which now sees the economy expanding at an annualized 3.6 during the fourth quarter. US Dollar relevant levels The index is down 0.59 at 100.88 and a breakdown of 100.64 (low Nov.25) would open the door to 99.38 (low Nov.14) and finally 99.63 (20-day sma). On the other hand, the next hurdle lines up at 102.19 (monthly high Apr.2003) ahead of 102.68 (monthly high March 2003). 10:20 EUR/USD testing offers near 1.0665, ECB Draghi eyed After having reversed a pike to daily highs at 1.0685, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade in a 20-pips narrow range, although underpinned by risk-averse market conditions. EUR/USD awaits Draghi Currently, EUR/USD trades 0.70 higher at 1.0660, keeping its range-play intact around the mid-point of 1.06 handle. The common currency pair remains stuck amid a phase of downside consolidation seen in the US dollar against its major peers and risk-off moods, triggered by extended weakness in oil prices and negative European equities. The upside attempts in the EUR/USD pair continues to find sellers around 1.0665 region, as a minor-recovery in the US treasury yields cap further gains, while the downside remains cushioned near 1.0640 region on the back of increased demand for the funding currency euro, in wake of poor sentiment towards risky assets. Markets now eagerly await ECB Chief Draghirsquos speech amid thin calendar, while month-end flows will continue to remain one of the drivers for today. Draghi is due to testify about the bankrsquos perspective on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of the Brexit before the Parliament39s Economic Committee, in Brussels. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0685 (weekly high). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0700 (round figure) and from there to 1.0741 (20-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0605 (daily pivot) below which 1.0550 (psychological levels) and 1.0515 (multi-month low) could be tested. To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 10:11 EUR/JPY consolidating recent gains to multi-month highs, Draghi in focus The EUR/JPY cross snapped seven consecutive days of winning streak to 120.00 psychological mark and dipped below 119.00 handle during early Asian session on Monday. The cross, however, has managed to stage a goodish recovery of around 50-pips from session low and is currently trading currently trading around 119.30-35 region. Improving investor risk-appetite, as depicted by a recovery in Asian equity markets, was seen weighing on the Japanese Yen39s safe-haven appeal. This coupled with the ongoing recovery in the EUR/USD major assisted the pair39s recovery from session low. The recovery, however, lacked momentum amid cautious sentiment surrounding European equity markets, as depicted by negative opening at the start of a fresh trading week. Nevertheless, the cross remained closer to Fridayrsquos multi-month highs and hence, Mondayrsquos price action could be categorized as a consolidation phase following its recent leg of sharp up-move Moreover, investors also seemed cautious ahead of ECB President Mario Draghi39s testimony about the European Central Bank39s perspective on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of the Brexit before the European Parliament39s Economic Committee, later during NA session. Ahead of the ECB39s next monetary policy meeting on December 8, Draghi39s comments would influence sentiment surrounding the shared currency and eventually provide fresh impetus for the EUR/JPY cross. Technical levels to watch Further corrective slide is likely to find support at the very important 200-day SMA resistance break, now turned support, near 118.60 region. Sustained break below 200-day SMA support might now trigger a near-term corrective slide and drag the cross below 118.00 handle towards its next major support near 117.50-40 region. On the upside, 119.75 level now becomes immediate hurdle above which a fresh leg of up-move could now lift the cross beyond 120.00 psychological mark towards its next major hurlde near 121.00 region. 10:01 Perfect storm favoring USD strength Deutsche Bank Research Team at Deustche Bank, views this as a lsquoperfect stormrsquo favoring USD strength and similarly, US and European politics in combination with the US policy cycle, is creating a lsquoperfect stormrsquo for even more persistently elevated FX volatility. ldquoWe are keeping our long standing call for EUR/USD to slide below parity and leave our 2017 year-end forecast at 0.95.rdquo ldquoWe also await details on the Trump stimulus, and the extent to which the growth impulse falls in 2018 and beyond, before we make any changes to our main 2018 and 2019 forecasts. For now our forecasts are based on the USD upswing being fairly close in length to the early 1980s and late 1990s, though the risks are that this cycle gets extended beyond past cycles. rdquo ldquoWe have revised our forecasts for a weaker yen and pound (Y115 and 1.06 at end 2017 respectively), consistent with the renewed breadth of the USD upswing. Sharpe ratios for carry strategies are set to deteriorate, mainly because of elevated volatility. rdquo 10:01 GBP/USD extends the rangebound Commerzbank According to Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph, Cable remains poised to extend its sideline theme for the time being. ldquo GBP/USD continues to oscillate around the 1.2450 level while trading above the two month support line at 1.2363. We anticipate to see several days of consolidation above last weekrsquos low at 1.2304. While it holds the 55 day ma at 1.2555 and the November 4 high at 1.2556 should be revisited. Further up sits the November high at 1.2672rdquo. ldquoA drop below the 1.2304 level would put the 1.2090/85 October 11 and 25 lows on the maprdquo. ldquoFailure at 1.2085 would mean a continuation of the descent and should trigger losses to the October low at 1.1938 (according to CQG). Below it lies the May 1985 low at 1.1855. We regard the recent peak at 1.2672 as the end of the corrective phase and look for further lossesrdquo. 09:54 Anti-Globalization fears in Emerging Markets point to risks for USA equities - AmpGFX Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, notes that while anti-establishment forces are at work in major developed Western economies, many emerging markets that have relied on international trade to drive their economic development are threatened by these trends. ldquoThere is some evidence that the market has responded with weaker equities and currencies in many of these countries, particularly in Asia, but also in Latin America. rdquo ldquoThis points to a potential threat to the USA stock market. If investors see anti-trade rhetoric by Trump and related trends in other developed markets undermining emerging market assets, then it must also see risks that companies in the USA will also suffer by retaliatory policies in emerging markets where large US companies operate. rdquo 09:41 German retail sales, M3 money supply and loan growth in focus Danske Bank Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that today, German retail sales figures for October are due to be released and after we have seen two consecutive monthly declines in August and September and Danske Bank expects a bounce back in October. ldquoHowever, the overall picture indicates weakening private consumption in Europe in 2017. The real wage is weakening as nominal wage growth remains constant while inflation is rising. Thus, despite a bounce back in October, we expect retail sales figures to remain somewhat weaker looking ahead. rdquo ldquoMonday also brings M3 money supply growth and loan growth for October. We estimate M3 money growth will show a continuation in the 5 y/y growth figure for October. Loan growth, however, may be heading towards a slowdown. Despite lying at 1.8 y/y since June, the decline in European bank equities may indicate a slowdown in loan growth. We therefore see a risk that loan growth could be lower in the remainder of 2016.rdquo 09:41 EUR/NOK drops to lows post-data, around 9.09 The Norwegian Krone is appreciating further vs. its European peer on Monday, now dragging EUR/NOK to daily lows near 9.0800. EUR/NOK lower on upbeat data NOK has picked up extra pace today after Retail Sales (excluding the Autos sector) in the Nordic economy have expanded more than initially estimated, up at a seasonally adjusted 0.9 on a monthly basis in October. The so far recovery of crude oil prices is also lending extra oxygen to NOK, collaborating with the downside, while the current drop in USD/NOK has been also supportive of a stronger Krone. Looking ahead, Novemberrsquos Manufacturing PMI is due on Thursday ahead of the key Norges Bank monetary policy meeting on December 15, where consensus expects the central bank to keep its key rate unchanged at 0.5. EUR/NOK significant level As of writing the cross is losing 0.09 at 9.0907 and a break above 9.1349 (high Nov.18) would aim for 9.1638 (high Nov.11) and finally 9.1826 (100-day sma). On the other hand, the next support aligns at 9.0286 (low Nov.22) followed by 9.0202 (low Nov.10) and finally 8.9121 (low Oct.20). 09:36 NZD/USD aiming to reclaim 0.7100 handle The NZD/USD pair extended Friday39s recovery momentum back above the very important 200-day SMA and has now moved within striking distance of 0.7100 handle. Currently trading around 0.7090-95 band, the pair remained on firm footing for the second consecutive day amid improving investor risk-appetite, as depicted by recovery in Asian equity markets. Moreover, a broad based US Dollar retracement is further supporting upbeat sentiment surrounding commodities and providing an additional boost to commodity-linked currencies, including the New-Zealand Dollar. Going ahead, the broader sentiment surrounding risk-associated space would be a key driver for riskier / higher-yielding currencies - like the Kiwi, ahead of this week39s key US macro releases - GDP print and NFP data, and RBNZ39s Financial Stability Report during early Asian session on Wednesday. Technical levels to watch A follow through buying interest above 0.7100 handle is likely to lift the pair immediately towards 0.7120 en-route 0.7140 strong horizontal resistance. On the downside, 0.7060 area now becomes immediate support to defend, which if broken could accelerate the slide towards 200-day SMA support near 0.7035 region. A convincing break back below 200-day SMA support might now negate any near-term bullish bias and turn the pair vulnerable to break through 0.70 psychological mark and aim towards retesting recent multi-month lows support near 0.6970 area. 09:26 USD/JPY: Good news and bad news - Rabobank Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, explains that the reflationary spirit that has taken hold of the US bond markets has injected a large amount of potency back into the BoJrsquos monetary policy settings. ldquoThe recovery in US yields started in October and the recent surge in their values and the USD can be associated with a significant loosening of the monetary conditions in several other economies due to exchange rate movements. rdquo ldquoThe loosening in monetary conditions implied by the exchange rate will be a welcome relief to the BoJ. Following a rise in concern about the side-effects of policies such as negative interest rates and QE, the BoJ in September announced a different tact. The BoJ currently aims to keep the 10 year JGB yield at 0. Domestic bank shares rallied on the announcement on the expectations that a steeper yield curve would offer their business models relief. However, this policy is unprecedented and there has been some concern as to how the BoJ would react to the upward drag on international bond yields caused by the movement in US treasuries. rdquo ldquoOn November 17 the BoJ concluded a special fixed rate bond buying operation for the first time to reassert its commitment to it QE programme and fire a warning short against expectations of excessive moves in JGB yields. This commitment suggests that as long as the market believes in the reflationary power of the President-elect that the spread between US and JGB yields will widen and USD/JPY can fly higher. In our view, however, the market may be over-anticipating the reflationary prospects of the USD and both treasury yields and the USD could correct lower medium-term. While we have recently moved up our forecasts for USD/JPY, our expectation for a correction lower in US treasuries leads us to the conclusion that USD/JPY will also correct lower in the medium-term. Consequently we are forecasting a move back to 110.00 on a 3 mth view. rdquo ldquoWhile the Japanese authorities will be grateful for the current strength of the USD, the Abe government is likely to be deeply concerned about the protectionist threats of the President-elect. If Trump follows through on his threats, this has the potential to have severe consequences for Japanrsquos export outlook both directly and through its trade with China. Yesterday Japanrsquos ambassador to China was reported as saying that the TTP was not completely dead. While it will be tough to resurrect the pact without the US, Japan is expected to play a leading role in the fight against isolationist policies in the coming years. rdquo 09:18 USD/CHF further consolidation likely Commerzbank In view of Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pairrsquos outlook in the near term continues to point to some consolidation. ldquoLast week USD/CHF made an interim top at 1.0192 before beginning to give back some of its recent gains. Given that the daily RSI reached an extremely overbought level around 81 we continue to allow for consolidation to be seen this week. Retracements may come back to parityrdquo. ldquoAbove 1.0192 lie the 1.0256/1.0328 2015 highs. The 1.0328 level is regarded as a major break up point to the 1.0910 61.8 retracement of the move down from 2005rdquo. 09:13 Turkey Economic confidence index up to 86.5 in November from previous 80.56 09:13 USD/CAD looking to stabilize around 1.3470 USD/ACAD has quickly broken below the 1.3500 handle in early trade, although it seems to have found some decent support around 1.3470 for the time being. USD/CAD attention to oil, USD A softer tone surrounding the greenback is allowing the risk-associated assets to gather some traction at the start of the week. In the meantime, crude oil prices have managed to leave behind the initial drop, although they remain under pressure in light of the upcoming OPEC meeting on wedn. In fact, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate has now returned to the 46.00 handle after testing the boundaries of the 45.00 mark earlier in the session. Nothing expected data wise in Canada and the US today, although the focus of attention should remain on US yields and equities following recent record highs in the SampP500 and Dow Jones IA. USD/CAD significant levels As of writing the pair is losing 0.33 at 1.3471 and a break below 1.3374 (low Nov.22) would aim for 1.3311 (38.2 Fibo of the 2016 drop) and finally 1.3260 (low Nov.9). On the other hand, the next up barrier aligns at 1.3566 (high Nov.18) ahead of 1.3575 (50 Fibo of the 2016 drop) and finally 1.3590 (high Nov.14). 09:05 AUD/USD hits 7-day peak, fast approaching 0.7500 handle The AUD/USD pair was seen building on to last week39s recovery momentum from nearly 5-month low and is now aiming towards reclaiming 0.7500 psychological mark. Currently trading at seven-day high near 0.7480-85 region, upbeat sentiment surrounding base metals, especially Copper, has been the key factor driving the major39s recovery since the beginning of previous week. Adding to this, a broad based US Dollar retracement is further supporting the pair39s bid tone for the third straight session. With December Fed rate-hike action fully priced-in, focus shifts to this week39s key US macro data - the first revision of quarterly GDP growth and November monthly jobs report, which would provide fresh clues over the Fed39s near-term monetary policy outlook (beyond December meeting) and help investors determine the next leg of directional move for the major. Technical levels to watch Momentum above 0.7500 mark resistance is likely to get extended towards the very important 200-day SMA resistance near 0.7520 region above which the pair is likely to head towards its next major resistance near 0.7560 region. On the flip side, weakness below 0.7465 immediate support could drag the pair back towards session low support near 0.7435 region, which if broken might negate any near-term bullish bias and weaken the pair further towards 0.7400 round figure mark. 09:02 Finland Consumer Confidence rose from previous 15.8to 17.6 in November 08:58 Forex Today: Yen gains on Oil-led risk-off, ECB Draghi in spotlight The yen witnessed sharp gains across the board in a data-quite Asian session today, as risk-aversion gripped markets, after last weekrsquos indecisive talks over OPECrsquos output cut deal induced markets to believe that Wednesdayrsquos OPEC decision could be in danger. Meanwhile, the US dollar corrected lower against its major peers in Asia, extending its retreat from Friday after the bulls ran into 102 resistance. Later today, ECB President Mario Draghirsquos speech will take the center-stage amid a relatively light economic calendar, with the only second-tier money supply data from the Euroland. Main topics in Asia USD/JPY consolidating multi-week highs at the start of the week USD/JPY is looking fragile in Asia at the start of the week following a mixed US close where US equities rose (SampP500 0.4 to a fresh record high), but the DXY closed close to 0.2 lower. Dollar index retraces 23.6 of Trump Bump The dollar index fell to near 100.60 (23.6 of 95.89-102.05) as the losses in the oil prices led to a correction in the risk assets. EUR/USD hits weekly highs at 1.0685, then retreats A sudden upward spike in EUR/USD to weekly tops soon faded, now pushing the rate back towards the mid-point of 1.06 handle amid stalled selling seen in the USD across the board. Oil remains fragile on OPEC prospects WTI remains offered at the start of the week as doubts over the OPEC meeting hit the wires at the end of last week39s trade. Key focus for the day ahead USD/JPY: 110.00 on a 3 mth view - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank explained that the reflationary spirit that has taken hold of the US bond markets has injected a large amount of potency back into the BoJrsquos monetary policy settings. AUD: Look for more sellers to emerging near 0.7520 - BBH Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, notes that the Australian dollar was the strongest of the major currencies last week, gaining nearly 1.4 against the US dollar. Key events on data packed week ahead - Rabobank quotToday we see Eurozone M3 and hear from ECB speakers tomorrow we get Japanese labour data, German CPI, and US Q3 GDP / consumer confidence. To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 08:51 EUR/USD scope for recover, resistance at 1.0821/51 Commerzbank Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the likeliness of a rebound in light of the positive divergence in the RSI. ldquoLast week EUR/USD slipped through the 1 1/2-, 17- and 32- year uptrend lines at 1.0682/14, to 1.0518, close to the November 2015 low at 1.0523, before recovering at the end of last week. Between it and the March 2015 low at 1.0457 we continue to expect the currency pair to stabilize short term, especially since positive divergence can be seen on the daily RSIrdquo. ldquoBelow the 1.0457 March 2015 low lies parityrdquo. ldquoInitial resistance at the 1.0658 November 22 high is currently in focus. Further up the March low can be seen at 1.0821 and the October low at 1.0851. Expect to see more of a recovery bounce over the next few daysrdquo. 08:48 JPY: GPIFs cautious stance continued in Q3 - Nomura Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, explains that the GPIF, Japanrsquos biggest pension fund, released its fiscal result for Q3 (Jul-Sep) and the latest result shows limited portfolio investment activity by the GPIF again in Q3. ldquoAfter excluding valuation effects, we estimate the fund sold domestic equities (JPY21bn or 0.2bn) and foreign equities (JPY208bn or 2.0bn). The GPIF was a small net buyer of foreign bonds (JPY195bn or 2.0bn), but its investment in riskier assets was limited for the second consecutive quarter. Various portfolio flows by investor-type data also point to weaker portfolio investment activity by trust banks (pension funds) during the period. Thus, the GPIFrsquos cautious stance in Q3 is unsurprising. rdquo ldquoThe fundrsquos exposure to short-term assets increased during the period. Its share of domestic bonds has declined to 36.2 from 37.6, approaching the central target (35). However, its share of risky assets is still far from the target. Its share of domestic equities was 21.6, declining from 21.8 the previous quarter (central target: 25). Its share of foreign bonds (12.5) and foreign equities (21.0) also fell from the previous quarter (central target: 15 and 25 respectively).rdquo ldquoIn contrast, its share of short-term assets has risen to 8.8 from 5.5 the previous quarter. The estimated short-term assets held by the GPIF and the Pension Special Account have risen to JPY12.3trn (109bn) and the future direction of investment will be important for JPY. The fund may keep its short-term asset share at a high level, but if it diversifies into other asset classes based on the target share (40 for foreign assets), there would be nearly JPY5trn of JPY selling. rdquo ldquoThe GPIF portfolio data confirmed its cautious stance in H1 FY2016, while the latest financial results of major lifers also showed their cautious stance on FX risk-taking. Our individual investor survey also showed retail investorsrsquo cautious stance ahead of the US presidential election. Domestic investorsrsquo cautious stance was one of the reasons behind the JPYrsquos appreciation until recently, but potential changes in their stance under the new BOJ policy framework and the global reflationary trend should support JPY weakness. rdquo 08:43 EURUSD: Technical pattern has deteriorated markedly - Natixis Micaella Feldstein, Research Analyst at Natixis, suggests that the EURUSDrsquos technical pattern has deteriorated markedly after the break below 1.0662-1.0670 (weekly Bollinger lower band and lower band of the downside channel - may 16/nov 16) and with the emergence of downside parallels on the daily chart. ldquoThe emergence of a downside bubble on the weekly data also suggests further downside potential. rdquo ldquoAgainst this backdrop, caution remains in order as a new leg lower in the coming days to 1.0523 (level tested in dec 2015 ahead of a strong rally) ahead of 1.0445-1.0460 (2015 low) sounds highly likely. The break below these last levels would lead to 1.0365 (semi-annual Bollinger lower band). The resistances stand at 1.0662, at 1.0845, at 1.0938 and at 1.1060.rdquo 08:38 Europe: Anti-establishment politics a risk for western developed world - AmpGFX Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, notes that anti-globalization type policies are taking hold in many other parts of the world, particularly in Western developed countries. ldquoPoliticians around the world are seeing the Trump victory as a sign that they too must now appeal to their own middle-class workers that feel squeezed out by immigrant workers and government policies that pay too much attention to international commitments. rdquo ldquoThis policy agenda, unfortunately, lends itself to nationalist parties that appeal to racists and generate conflicts across ethnic groups within countries. Trump appeared to gain support from fueling these lsquoAlt-rightrsquo ideals which have little merit in promoting a stronger more productive economy. And in fact may undermine economic growth by generating distrust, distracting people from productive pursuits, hardening enclaves and promoting even less international cooperation. This trend towards support for Alt-right parties is occurring in many countries and may be seen as a further threat to globalization and growth. This threat is rising particularly in Europe. rdquo ldquoAt the other end of the scale, is a shift in support to left-wing parties. This support arises from a similar concern over globalization having gone too far and favoring big business over the middle-class. It has been described as an anti-establishment mood. Bernie Sanders campaign for the Democratic Party nomination was more successful than many people expected (even though he lost). That he was able to do so well in the USA where unemployment was relatively low, sends a potent message for the Eurozone where in many countries, including Italy, Spain, and France, unemployment remains high. Parties at this end of the spectrum may not appeal to Alt-right bigotry, but they are also against trade and want governments to be more domestically focused. Mainstream parties are reacting more urgently to these pressures from their electorates and this is likely to be a factor slowing and diminishing globalization. rdquo ldquoImmediate threats in Europe include the 4 December (next Sunday) referendum in Italy. A No Vote on constitutional reform will be seen as a victory for anti-establishment parties that threaten to pull out of the Euro. rdquo ldquoIt is hard to quantify the effect on investor confidence and the broader implications for the stability of the Euro. But it will represent a further significant blow to globalization and European integration. It might be expected to weaken the EUR exchange rate and European asset prices. This might have some broader negative consequences for global risk appetite. rdquo 08:36 USD/CHF: Hourly 200-SMA a tough nut to crack The ongoing recovery momentum behind the USD/CHF pair appears to have stalled for now, keeping the rate flat-lined just below 1.01 handle. USD/CHF hovers near hourly 200-SMA Currently, the USD/CHF pair now drops -0.45 to flirt with 1.0100 levels, recovering from session low struck at 1.0080 in early Asia. A brief phase of downside consolidation in the US dollar against its major peers appears to have stalled the ongoing recovery mode in the USD/CHF. Meanwhile, the USD index treads water around 100.90, unable to resist above 101 handle. Moreover, traders continue to remain on the back foot and prefer to park their funds in the safe-haven CHF amid uncertainty over an OPEC cut decision and increased nervousness ahead of the US payrolls data due later this week. USD/CHF Technical Levels To the upside, the next resistance is located at 1.0118 (10-DMA) and above which it could extend gains to 1.0139 (5-DMA) and 1.0171 (daily R3) next. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.0080 (daily low) and below that 1.0050 (psychological levels) and from there to 1.0000 (parity). 08:35 USD/JPY recovers back to 112.00 handle The USD/JPY pair caught fresh bids at lower level and has now moved back above 112.00 handle, recovering around 70-75 pips from session low. Currently trading around 112.00 handle, the pair initially fell sharply and dropped to 111.35 level amid safe-haven demand in wake of the prevalent risk-off mood, as depicted by early weakness in Japanese equity market (Nikkei 225) and crude oil prices. However, a broad based recovery in Asian equity markets, with Nikkei 225 now trading in neutral territory, helped the major to reverse some of its early steep losses. Moreover, with December Fed rate-hike action already fully priced-in, growing expectations of faster Fed rate-tightening cycle next year was further seen supporting the greenback and also contributed to the pair39s recovery from session low. With an empty US economic docket, the pair would continue to take cues from the broader market risk sentiment ahead of this week39s key US macro releases - quarterly GDP print and the keenly watched NFP data, which might influence Fed rate-hike expectations beyond December meeting and trigger the next leg of directional move for the pair. Technical levels to watch Immediate upside resistance is pegged near 112.30-35 region above which the pair is likely to aim back towards reclaiming 113.00 handle and head towards testing 113.20-25 resistance area. On the downside, immediate support is now seen at 111.75 level, which if broken might drag the pair below session low support near 111.35 level, towards testing its next support near 111.00 round figure mark. 08:35 EUR/USD retreats from highs, near 1.0650 ahead of Draghi EUR/USD is fading the initial spike to the 1.0680 area, or multi-day tops, and is now returning to the mid-1.0600s. EUR/USD attention to Draghi Spot has started the week on the right footing so far, backed by a generalized offered bias around the greenback. However, the bullish attempt seems to have run out of steam just beyond 1.0680, sparking the ongoing correction to the 1.0650/45 band. USD remains under pressure following last weekrsquos 13-year tops above the 102.00 handle when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), although reflation prospects in the US and the constructive stance around US yields should remain supportive of the buck. Later in the session, President Mario Draghi is expected to speak twice before the European Parliament on the economic outlook of the region and potential implications following the Brexit vote. Still with the ECB, board members J. Dickson, P. Praet and B. Coeure are also due to speak. An empty calendar in the US today could prompt a quiet session in Wall St. although recent highs in US equity indices should put that to the test. EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now up 0.63 at 1.0654 facing the initial resistance at 1.0685 (high Nov.28) followed by 1.0763 (high Nov.16) and finally 1.0826 (high Nov.14). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0515 (2016 low Nov.24) would open the door for 1.0457 (2015 low Mar.16) and then 1.0332 (monthly low January 2003). 08:16 NZ PM Key: Confident the Govt would have room for a range of initiatives New Zealand PM John Key is on the wires yet again, via Reuters, speaking to media on the number of initiative expected to be unveiled next week by his government, when Finance Minister Bill English releases Treasury39s Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU). quotThose numbers include both a write-off of expenditure for the earthquake. Not the full cost of the earthquake, but what we think we39re going to take to our bottom line straight awayquot quotThey39ll also include a number of other big initiatives that we39ve got, that are taking placerdquo quotThere are a lot of different moving factors here, but what you will see over a four-year period of time, is a surplus that there39ll be lots of debate, over what people think those surpluses should be spent onquot quotWhen you see the HYEFU numbers, then what you39ll see is the budget surpluses start hockey-sticking up, and they start getting quite big. quotAnd I39m telling you now, you might be having this debate today, but in a year or two from now the argument will be 39why is the Government, when debt is well and truly on track for its target of GDP to be below 20 per cent, why is the Government building bigger and bigger surpluses39quot 08:15 AUD/NZD: Turnaround of the daily indicators expected to bolster the pair - Natixis Research Team at Natixis, suggests that the stabilisation of daily volatility and the turnaround of the daily indicators can be expected to bolster the AUD/NZD pair and enable it to go on and test the major resistance at 1.0670 (daily parabolic), before an acceleration of the rebound towards 1.0782 (upper band of weekly Bollinger and monthly Bollinger moving average). ldquoA breakout above this last resistance would release significant upside potential towards 1.0892 (Fibonacci projection) before the resistance levels around 1.0980-1.10 (Fibonacci projections) and at 1.1114 (50-month moving average).rdquo ldquoTake advantage of any pullbacks towards 1.05-1.0520 to buy the AUD/NZD, with as first major target 1.0782 (setting the stoploss below 1.0440).rdquo 08:09 US: The Trump rally in perspective - AmpGFX Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, notes that the rise in optimism following the Trump election in the USA has seen US rates yields, the USD exchange rate, and the stock market rally significantly. ldquoThis may reflect some pent-up momentum that was awaiting the conclusion of the hard-fought divisive election campaign that distracted attention away from investment, hiring and spending. It may also reflect the hope that a Republican-led Congress and administration can get things done. It may reflect the sense that a Republican government, the traditional party of capitalists, will make policy that benefits business. rdquo ldquoIndustrial commodity prices, outside of oil, have surged in part due to the overtures Trump has made to boosting infrastructure spending. This drew more attention to a trend in more infrastructure spending begun or planned in many other parts of the world. China has boosted infrastructure spending this year to underpin economic growth and continues to pursue a far-reaching policy of promoting infrastructure spending across regions with its One Belt One Road (OBOR) new Silk Road policy and its lead role in setting up the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).rdquo ldquoRising commodity prices have added to reasons for global yields to rise, helping boost inflation expectations. rdquo ldquoYields have risen also because of a push-back against central banksrsquo negative interest rate and quantitative monetary policies. These policies persist and restrain the rise in yields, but the market had gone too far in fearing the extension of these policies even as they appeared to be counter-productive by hurting financial sector companies and households relying on interest income while undermining economic confidence and inflation expectations. The market may be now seeing the benefits of these policies more clearly in a rising yield environment, by keeping real yields low and foreign exchange rates cheap, providing support for investment spending. rdquo ldquoYields may be rising in the US as evidence of wage growth has shown up more clearly, combined with low unemployment. The outlook for economic growth has improved, supporting further tightening in the labor market. rdquo ldquoYields may be rising in the USA due to risks that the Trump policies, including more infrastructure spending and tax cuts, may halt and reverse narrowing in government fiscal deficits at the Federal, State, and local level. rdquo 08:05 UK profile of growth fared better in Q3 than expected - ANZ UKrsquos revised Q3 GDP rose 0.5, in line with the preliminary estimate as notes by the Research Team at ANZ. ldquoReal private consumption rose 0.7 q/q, down from 0.9 in Q2 but still encouraging given the uncertain post-referendum environment. Gross fixed capital formation rose 1.1 vs 1.6 in Q2 and exports rose 0.7 following a 1 drop the previous quarter. The profile of growth is as expected, but it has fared better in Q3 than expected and is consistent with the BoE keeping interest rates on hold. rdquo 08:01 AUD: Look for more sellers to emerging near 0.7520 - BBH Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, notes that the Australian dollar was the strongest of the major currencies last week, gaining nearly 1.4 against the US dollar. ldquoThe Aussie had bottomed at the start of the week in front of 0.7300 after toying with the ceiling above 0.7700 as recently as November 10. If Aussie39s correction began earlier than most of the other majors, it ought not to surprise if it ends first. A move back below .0.7380 would like signal a top is in place. It ran into some selling before the weekend as it had approached the 0.7480 area, a retracement objective of the last leg down that began in the middle of the month from near 0.7580. If that 0.7480 is not a sufficient cap, look for more sellers to emerging near 0.7520.rdquo 08:00 GBP/USD off 2-week highs, flirts with 1.2500 The GBP/USD pair is seen wavering in a tight range above 1.25 handle, after having faced rejection near more-than one-week highs, as markets await fresh impetus from the sentiment on the European open. GBP/USD consolidates in early Europe The cable is seen consolidating the Asian move higher to more-than one week tops, with the bulls defending 1.25 handle amid a broadly lower US dollar and stalled selling in oil prices. Amid a data-empty US and UK calendars today, focus will remain on the oil price-action amid OPEC output cut deal-related news flow, which will have a significant impact on risk sentiment as well as on higher-yielding currencies such as the GBP. Additionally, cross-driven moves on the spot, particularly EUR/GBP dynamics, will be closely eyed amid month-end flows spread over the next few days, while Wednesdayrsquos OPEC decision and Thursdayrsquos BOE Financial Stability report and bank stress results will also remain in focus. GBP/USD Levels to consider In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are lined up at 1.2532 (2-week highs), 1.2600 (round number) and 1.2675 (Nov high). While supports are seen at 1.2471 (5-DMA) and 1.2436 (10-DMA) and below that at 1.2393 (50-DMA). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 07:58 RBNZ: Market pricing in tightening - Westpac Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the market pricing for the RBNZ continues to imply rate hikes during the next two years. ldquoBy March 2018 one hike is 100 priced in, while by November 2017 it is 60 priced in. rdquo ldquoThat is at odds with our own forecast that the RBNZ will remain on hold at 1.75 for the next two years, although it is understandable. Markets donrsquot like to sit still - they want to pre-emptively price in either easings or tightenings. With the RBNZ telling us earlier this month that the easing cycle is probably over, the direction of market pricing is set although it will need endorsement from strong inflation data during the months ahead. rdquo ldquoWe recently upgraded out outlook for the NZ economy for 2016 and 2017. Business confidence and hiring are on the rise, and the pipeline of construction work is particularly strong. Migration, as a major driver of population and GDP growth, is also remaining remarkably strong. And finally, higher dairy prices are helping confidence in the major producer regions. Inflation should eventually come to the party. rdquo 07:25 USD/CNY eases-off 8-1/2 yr highs as PBOC strengthens Yuan fix The Chinese currency is seen on a steady recovery path versus its American counterpart so far this Monday, after having slumped to record-low levels last week. The PBOC set the yuan reference point against the US dollar at 6.9042, 181 basis points or 0.18 stronger than Fridayrsquos fix of 6.9168. The spot last seen changing hands at 6.9198 at midday, almost unchanged from Fridayrsquos close. Meanwhile, the yuan has fallen over 6 per dollar this year, dropping around 2 since a Trump win in the US election. 07:17 CAD: Next major upside target is near 1.3840 - BBH Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, explained that since reaching almost CAD1.36 on November 14, the US dollar has been consolidating its gains against the Canadian unit. ldquoThe US interest rate premium continued to widen even though the greenback failed to extend its recent gains against the Loonie. Both the two and 10-year premiums are moving back toward the extremes set at the start of the year. rdquo ldquoThe sharp drop in oil prices ahead of the weekend weigh on Canada, and helped lift the greenback to test a short-term down trend line drawn off the November 14 and November 18 highs. It came in near CAD1.3540 ahead of the weekend and caught the high. It caught the high, which was recorded late in the session. We note that the CAD1.3575 area represents a 50 retracement of the US dollar39s slide since the multi-year high was set in January. That slide looks corrective in nature, but in any event, the next major upside target is near CAD1.3840.rdquo 07:14 NZD/AUD is now extremely overvalued - Westpac Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the NZD/AUD cross has been stuck in a 0.9400-0.9600 range for the past month. ldquoIt does need to fall significantly to reflect the impressive rise in Australian commodity prices although for now markets are focussing on the battering Asian currencies have taken since the US election. rdquo ldquoAustraliarsquos calendar remains quiet until Wed when we see the first of a flurry of Oct ABS data: building approvals. Oct private credit is due the same day. The highlight though is Q3 capex and investment intentions on Thu 1 Dec. There is no tension over the RBArsquos 6 Dec decision (on hold), with the Australian domestic story remaining broadly constructive and key commodities sustaining their stellar gains. rdquo ldquo 3 months: The NZD/AUD cross has failed to break below the 0.93 barrier during the past six months, despite repeated attempts. It is now extremely overvalued according to both our short and long term valuation models, and we expect it to break lower eventually. rdquo 07:10 Commodities: Driven higher as a weaker USD kept investor appetite high - ANZ Research Team at ANZ, notes that the commodities were driven higher by further buying in industrial metals on Friday as a weaker USD kept investor appetite high. ldquoFurther doubts about OPECrsquos production cut agreement saw crude oil prices tumble. Saudi Arabia pulled out of talks with non-OPEC members on Friday, suggesting they are struggling to get Russia and others to join the agreement. Even within OPEC itself, debate continues to rage about whether Iran should cut or freeze production. rdquo ldquoIndustrial metals were mixed, with zinc surging higher while nickel and aluminium struggled to keep their heads above water. Imports of refined zinc into China in October jumped over 50 from the previous month as demand for galvanised steel improved. Sentiment in the Chinese steel market picked up after the Chinese government pledged to clamp down on illegally expanded capacity. This helped push steel prices higher and dragged iron ore prices with it. Chinarsquos premier Li Keqiang has said inspection teams will investigate and punish companies that are violating the rules. rdquo ldquoA slightly weaker USD saw gold prices recover some of the losses achieved earlier in the week. Buying also emerged as prices hit a key technical level. rdquo ldquoAgriculture markets were mixed, with a holiday-affected week keeping volumes low. Sugar was higher on the back of a stronger Brazilian real while wheat fell as investors locked in recent gains. rdquo 06:56 AUD/USD extends 3-day winning streak, 0.7500 eyed The AUD/USD pair extends its bullish momentum into a third day today, now testing Fridayrsquos of 0.7482 levels, in another towards 0.75 handle. AUD/USD: 20-DMA at 0.7505 next on sight Currently, the AUD/USD pair jumps 0.42 to 0.7476, hovering within a striking distance of session highs reached at 0.7480 last minutes. The upbeat momentum behind the Aussie gains traction this Monday, largely on the back of a robust recovery staged by gold prices and stabilizing oil prices, which bolsters the bids for the resource-linked AUD. Moreover, broad based US dollar correction, after the recent strength backed by Trumponomics and increased Dec Fed rate hike bets, has also supported the latest move higher in the AUD/USD pair. However, further upside appears to lack momentum as cautious sentiment prevail so far this session, as markets fret whether OPECrsquos output cut decision will be reached at its final meeting on Wednesday, after war of words witnessed between major OPEC producers last Friday. While focus shifts towards major economic releases from both US and Australia, which are expected to have a significant impact on the spot. We have the GDP and NFP report due out from the US docket later this week, while from Australia, we have buildings approval and private capex data. AUD/USD Levels to watch The pair finds the immediate resistance at 0.7505 (Nov 17 high/ 20-DMA) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located 0.7550 (daily R1) and 0.7575 (50-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support located 0.7431 (5-DMA). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7400 (10-DMA) and below that at 0.7358 (Nov 24 low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 06:52 Further USD gains against the JPY lie ahead over the medium-term - BBH Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, notes that since November 4, the dollar has risen 11 against the yen, reaching almost JPY114 in Asia on Friday before profit-taking emerged. ldquoThe RSI has rolled over, and the Slow Stochastics is about to turn, while the MACDs are still trending higher. Dollar buying re-emerged ahead of JPY112.50 and support extends toward JPY112.30 A break could see another yen decline that pushes the greenback toward JPY111.60. The US rate premium continued to widen. The two-year advantage rose to 1.31, which is the most since 2008. At 2.31, the 10-year premium is at a five-year high. rdquo ldquoIn the bigger picture, it looks the drop in the dollar from last year39s high (almost JPY126) to this year39s low (circa JPY99) was corrective in nature, meeting a little more than the 50 retracement target of the Abenomics induced rally. This suggests further dollar gains against the yen lie ahead over the medium-term. Near-term, the JPY114.35-JPY114.65 may offer some resistance on the way to JPY115.00-JPY115.60.rdquo 06:31 NZD/USD: Risks for the week ahead are to the upside, to around 0.7110 - Westpac Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the NZD/USD is struggling to sustain the recent break below a technical ldquonecklinerdquo at 0.7080, and indeed is at risk of breaking back above it during the week ahead. ldquoThe key will be the behaviour of the US dollar. Since the US election the US dollar has outperformed almost all currencies by a good margin but is now in need of a breather. It has already priced in a strong Trump-led US economy and a Fed hike in December, so itrsquos hard to envisage another USD surge during the weeks ahead. If it does take a rest, then that will allow NZrsquos strong fundamentals to come to the fore. Based on commodity prices, interest rates and risk sentiment, NZD/USD is around 4c undervalued. Thus, the risks to NZD/USD for the week ahead are to the upside, to around 0.7110.rdquo ldquoNZ events this week are again low key, with official Stats NZ releases remaining disrupted by the recent earthquake near Wellington. ANZ business confidence will be out on Wed, but Oct building permits, Q3 building work done, and Q3 terms of trade timing is fluid. Worth watching out for is the RBNZrsquos semi-annual Financial Stability Report on Wed. On the US calendar, Nov ISM and payrolls are the highlights. rdquo ldquo3 months: We target sub-0.70 on an assumption the US dollar will strengthen further, driven by expectations of a stronger US economy under President Trump, and commensurately higher US interest rates. rdquo 06:30 China Govt promotes healthy development of outbound investment - RTRS The official Xinhua news agency noted on Monday, the Chinese government promoted the healthy development of outbound investment, as ongoing weakness in the Yuan revives concerns over capital outflow, Reuters reports. Further, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), the People39s Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said China will stick to its strategy of encouraging offshore investment. 06:19 USD/JPY recovers in tandem with DXY amp Nikkei The bulls were rescued by a quick rebound in the US dollar index amid improvement in risk sentiment, which lifted USD/JPY back towards 112 handle. Yen sold-off near 111.40 Having bottomed out near 111.40 levels post-China open, the dollar-yen pair retraced a part of todayrsquos almost 200-pips sell-off, as risk sentiment improved somewhat amid recovery in oil prices as well as in the Asian equities. The recovery in the USD/JPY pair also gained traction after the US dollar stalled its corrective slide and bounced higher against its major peers, having paid little heed to the sustained weakness in the US treasury yields. The major is last seen exchanging hands at 111.90, still down -1.15, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 index now drops -0.38 versus -0.84 seen previously, and the USD index (DXY) recovers to 101 handle from a dip to 100.68 levels. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 112.64 (5-DMA). A break above the last, the major could test 113.23 (daily high) and 113.91 (multi-month high) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 111.50 (psychological levels) next at 111.09 (1h 200-SMA) and below that at 110.80 (Nov 23 low). 06:00 NZD/USD: Bulls back in control, 0.7100 a whisker away After a brief phase of consolidation in overnight trades, the New Zealand dollar regained footing versus its American counterpart, driving the rate sharply higher in a bid to reclaim 0.71 handle. NZD/USD extendsrsquo Fridayrsquos rebound Currently, the NZD/USD pair advances 0.59 to trade near fresh weekly highs of 0.7090 reached last hour. The Kiwi caught a fresh bid-wave post-Tokyo open, mainly driven by stabilizing oil prices, while the bulls seem to have ignored a minor-recovery in the US dollar against its main competitors. Additionally, optimistic remarks by New Zealand PM Key on the budget surplus earlier on the day, also lent support to the recovery in NZD/USD. The NZD/USD pair dipped to 0.7035 region in early trades after oil extended losses on the back of fears surrounding OPEC accord in Vienna this week. The OPECrsquos output cut deal due on Wednesday was put in danger after fresh indifferences cropped up between Iran and Saudi Arabia last Friday, while weekendrsquos comments from the Saudi Arabian oil minister Al-Falih also dented the sentiment around oil markets. NZD/USD Levels to consider To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7100 (zero figure), above which it could extend gains to 0.7121 (20-DMA) and from there to 0.7153 (50-DMA). To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7037/36 (5 amp 10-DMA) and from there to at 0.7000 (key support), below which 0.6949 (July low) would be tested. To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 05:57 GBP/JPY trims losses, hovers around 140.00 Recovery on oil prices helped soften the bid tone around the Yen and thus open doors for a minor pull back in the GBP/JPY pair. The cross was last seen trading around 140.05 levels after having clocked a low of 139.35 levels earlier today. Oil prices dropped earlier today on fears OPEC may struggle to unite members after two years of depressed oil prices. This resulted in risk aversion and a rise in demand for the Yen. Consequently, the bird fell to 139.35 before recovering to 140.05 on the back of a recovery in oil prices. Oil benchmarks were last seen trading moderately higher on the day. GBP/JPY Technical Levels A break above 140.16 (5-DMA) would open doors for 141.01 (session high) above which the cross could target 141.76 (Fridayrsquos high). On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 139.68 (Thursdayrsquos low) could yield a test of 139.35 (session lows) and 139.00 (zero figure). 05:37 GBP/USD clocks two-week high in Asia The broad based weakness in the US dollar amid oil price drop in Asia pushed the GBP/USD pair to a high of 1.2532 levels. The data calendar across Europe and in the US is thin, which leaves the pair and the FX markets in general at the mercy of the oil price action. Oil was down more than 1 in early Asia, which led to a sell-off in the US dollar and other risk assets. However, the oil benchmarks recovered losses and were last seen trading with moderate gains. Consequently, the rally in the GBP/USD pair stalled 1.2532 and was last seen trading around 1.2520 levels. GBP/USD Technical Levels A break above 1.2534 (23.6 of 1.2083-1.2674) would open doors for 1.2585 (Nov 10 high) and 1.26 levels. On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 1.25 (50-DMA) could yield a drop to 1.2452 (10-DMA), under which the psychological support of 1.24 could come into play. 05:27 EUR/USD drops sharply from weekly highs at 1.0685 A sudden upward spike in E UR/USD to weekly tops soon faded, now pushing the rate back towards the mid-point of 1.06 handle amid stalled selling seen in the USD across the board. EUR/USD retreats as risk-off eases Currently, EUR/USD trades 0.65 higher at 1.0656, retreating from fresh one-week tops reached at 1.0685. The risk-off market environment appears to have cooled-off a bit as oil prices turn positive, weighing on the funding currency euro somewhat. Further, the US dollar staged a tepid-bounce against most of its major rivals, after having stalled the recent corrective slide, which also collaborated to the latest leg down in EUR/USD. However, the major is likely to remain underpinned in the day ahead as the US treasury yields continue to extend its weakness across the curve, which will eventually keep a check on the USDrsquos recovery. The major will continue to get influenced by the USD price-action and persisting risk trends, with all eyes now awaiting ECB Draghirsquos speech due later today for fresh impetus. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0685 (weekly high). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0700 (round figure) and from there to 1.0741 (20-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0605 (daily pivot) below which 1.0550 (psychological levels) and 1.0515 (multi-month low) could be tested. To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 05:09 Dollar index retraces 23.6 of Trump Bump The dollar index fell to near 100.60 (23.6 of 95.89-102.05) as the losses in the oil prices led to a correction in the risk assets. Is this a technical correction or the beginning of a major sell-off The US dollar was poised for a technical correction following a sharp near 90 degree rise over the last two weeks on heightened expectations of a steeper Fed rate hike path. Consequently, the oil drop today became a reason for the much awaited technical correction. However, if the oil drop worsens, the markets may begin questioning the possibility of the rate hike next year or even December, in which case the correction in the US dollar index could take an ugly turn. Dollar Index Technical Levels The index was last seen trading around 100.85 levels. A breakdown of support at 100.60 (23.6 of 95.89-102.05) could yield a much deeper retracement of 100.00 (zero figure) and 99.70 (38.2 fib). On the other higher side, a move back above 101.03 (10-DMA) would expose the 5-DMA level of 101.34 and 102.05 (Thursdayrsquos high). 05:06 PBOCs Gang: Conditions allow for yuan to remain stable in the future In an interview with CCTV on weekend, published via Reuters this Monday, PBOC deputy governor Yu Gang made comments on the exchange rate level. Despite the Yuan39s decline against the dollar, it has appreciated against some major currencies Economy growing steadily with proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy Conditions allow for yuan to remain stable in the future 05:02 NZ PM Key comments on the budget surplus at a news conference New Zealand PM John Key is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that the budget surpluses are expected to widen further. 05:02 NZD/USD undergoes corrective process An upward and over extended market, set against the backdrop of a downtrend may swing the NZD/USD buyer-seller pendulum back towards the bears again. NZD/USD was in sell mode until a recent move changed the shape of the price structure. The 4hr RSI was on average printing below 50 over the last three weeks and recently broke above the 60 mark. This can be considered overbought territory in the context of a full-fledged bear market. Therefore, the present corrective rally is vulnerable for a turnaround from here. Further, the 50SMA is still below the 200SMA on 4hr charts. However, should the pair extend its recovery from multi-week lows into a new trend, traders may require a contingency plan in place. 05:02 EUR/USD short-term extreme overbought The 4hr RSI was printing below 50 most of the last three weeks and recently broke above the 60 mark. EUR/USD was in sell mode - the 50SMA placed below the 200SMA on 4hr charts-, until it failed to cooperate with these trend indicators. Now the oscillators point to a short-term extreme overbought zone which may allow sellers to adhere to a continuation move with the prevailing down trend. However, should the pair extend its recovery from multi-week lows into a new trend, short positions may require a contingency plan. 05:01 USD/SEK Bulls are losing momentum USD/SEK sellers stood their ground and buyers retreated in recent sessions as MACD (26, 12, 9) has fallen off below its median line. On a 4hr chart, this technical condition may be taken by many trend-following traders as a trigger to liquidate long positions. The fact that the MACD hasnt been under zero for at least one week of trading, reinforces the argument that room for further USD/SEK depreciation is there. 05:01 NZD/USD mid-term buyers gaining momentum On the 4H NZD/USD chart, the MACD has moved above zero denoting an uptrend. Such a momentum indication, unseen for at least for more that a week, indicates that key price breaks are on the horizon. Likely, momentum traders who had been waiting for this technical signal will likely try to push NZD/USD higher. 04:47 Asian stocks ex-China drop amid Oil-led risk-off The Asian stocks kicked-off a brand new week on a bearish note, after last weekrsquos impending decision on OPECrsquos output cut agreement left markets in a tizzy and crushed investorsrsquo appetite for risky assets such as equities. While on the other hand, increased demand for the safe-haven yen in times-of market unrest, also weighed down on the sentiment around the exports-oriented stocks. Meanwhile, USD/JPY sinks -1.57 to around 111.40 levels, having eroded almost 200-pips so far. The Australian markets also remain on the back foot, as investors remain cautious ahead of a series of key macro events from the OZ economy due later this week, while OPEC-related news flow will also have a significant impact on the regionrsquos index. However, the Chinese equities bucked the trend and edged higher on the back of continued yuan weakness and upbeat Chinese industrial profits data. Meanwhile, Japanrsquos Nikkei 225 drops -0.84 to 18,230, the Australian SampP/ASX 200 dip -0.38 to 5,486. The Chinese equities trade slightly higher, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index up 0.46, while CSI300 index ticks 0.68 higher. Hong Kong markets rise 0.57 to 22,860 levels. 04:40 EUR/JPY: Selling stalls near 23.6 Fib level Oil drop in Asia triggered a correction in the Japanese Yen and other funding currencies, thus pushing the EUR/JPY to near 118.78 (23.6 of 2014 high ndash 2016 low). The cross clocked a low of 118.82 before recovering slightly to trade around 119.10 levels. Oil takes center stage Oil has out-trumped Trumponomics in Asia after Saudi Arabia downplayed the need for an OPEC deal. The meeting with non-OPEC members, mainly Russia was cancelled as well. The resulting drop in oil helped the Japanese Yen gain ground. However, the losses in the EUR/JPY cross were capped around 118.78 levels as the EUR/USD strengthened as well. EUR/JPY Technical Levels A break below 118.78 (23.6 of 2014 high ndash 2016 low) would open doors for a test of support at 118.49 (10-DMA) and 118.00 levels. On the higher side, a break above 119.31 (Frirsquos low) could yield a rally to 119.83 (daily high) and 120.17 (Frirsquos high). 04:31 USD/JPY extends 150-pips sell-off amid flight to safety The USD/JPY pair is on a declining trend since Friday, after having faced rejection at multi-month tops, now extending the sell-off towards 111.50 amid increased flight to safety. Yen gains for 2 nd straight session The dollar-yen pair is now seen making minor-recovery attempts, although remains deep in the red zone as the Asian Monday started-off on a cautious note, after Fridayrsquos OPEC consultations ended in doubt over the output cut deal to be reached later this week, and therefore, shattered investorsrsquo confidence in risky assets, which in turn boosted the demand for safe-havens such as the JPY. Moreover, the bearish pressure behind the major is also partly attributed to the ongoing broad based US dollar correction, after the recent strength-driven by Trumprsquos victory and on increased prospects of a Dec Fed rate hike. Markets also remain on a cautious footing heading into the NFP week, with a string of crucial economic releases due on the cards from both the US and Japan, to drive the moves in the spot going forward. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 112.64 (5-DMA). A break above the last, the major could test 113.23 (daily high) and 113.91 (multi-month high) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 111.50 (psychological levels) next at 111.09 (1h 200-SMA) and below that at 110.80 (Nov 23 low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 04:12 Oil drops, Treasury yields retreat The reduced probability of an oil price deal and the resulting drop in the oil prices increased the haven demand for the treasuries. The 10-year yield dropped more than three basis points. The 2-yr yield fell almost two basis points. The 30-year yield was down three basis points as well. Saudi Arabia said over the weekend that an output cut may not be required, while as per the latest report non-OPEC meeting has been cancelled. That leaves OPEC alone to work out a deal to support oil prices. Moreover, the treasury prices and other traditional safe havens, have been oversold over the last two weeks and risk snapping back if the oil drop worsens. Both WTI and Brent were last seen trading 0.5 lower on the day. 04:06 USD/NOK extending scope of projections USD/NOK has just crossed below the 200 SMA on an hourly chart. For traders inclined to nibble on short trades, the cooling USD/NOK price now eyes the 800 SMA, which corresponds to the reading of the 200 SMA on 4H charts. The last such price-indicator cross has occurred at least over a week ago on this time frame, accentuating its significance. 04:06 Gold stages solid rebound to test 1200 amid risk-off Gold staged a solid comeback in the Asian hours this Monday, mainly driven risk-off market profile as we head into a big week ahead, with the impending OPEC decision and US payrolls data eagerly awaited. Gold regains 5-DMA and beyond Currently, Comex gold futures jump 1.41 to trade at fresh session highs of 1195, eyeing for a break above 1200 levels. Demand for the safe-havens is seen on the rise, with the ultimate safety bet, gold, benefiting the most amid widespread risk-aversion, as increased concerns over OPECrsquos intent to reach an output cut deal this week leaves investors jittery. Moreover, extension of the corrective slide in the US dollar versus its major peers, also underpins the sentiment around the bullion. A weaker US dollar makes the USD-denominated commodity cheaper for the holders in foreign currencies and vice-versa. Looking ahead, the yellow-metal will continue to take cues from the broader market sentiment, awaiting fresh impetus from the US macro news lined up for release later this week, which includes the highly influential prelim GDP figures and NFP report. Comex Gold Technical Levels The metal has an immediate resistance at 1200 (key resistance) and 1210 (round figure). Meanwhile, the support stands at 1186.50 (5-DMA) below which doors could open for 1177 (multi-month low). To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis 04:03 Depressed USD/HUF falls below key SMA USD/HUF has just crossed below its 200-hour SMA. The last such price-indicator cross has been registered at least over a week ago on this time frame, accentuating its significance. Traders maintaining a downside bias, extend their projections to the 800-SMA, which corresponds to the 200-SMA on 4hr charts. 04:02 Depressed USD/CHF falls below key SMA USD/CHF has just crossed below its 200-hour SMA. The last such price-indicator cross has been registered at least over a week ago on this time frame, accentuating its significance. Traders maintaining a downside bias, extend their projections to the 800-SMA, which corresponds to the 200-SMA on 4hr charts. 03:56 USD/CAD dips below 1.35 as oil trims losses The technical correction in the US dollar and the recovery in the oil prices from the session lows saw the USD/CAD pair surrender gains to trade below 1.35 handle. Oil prices were down more than 1 earlier today, which had pushed the USD/CAD to a session high of 1.3538. Moreover, Saudi Arabia said over the weekend that an OPEC deal may not be required. This reduced the probability of an OPEC deal later this week. However, the oil benchmarks trimmed losses. The WTI was last seen trading 0.75 lower on the day around 45.69/barrel. On similar lines, Brent trimmed losses as well. Consequently, the USD/CAD pair surrendered gains to print a session low of 1.3491. Moreover, a broad based technical correction in the US dollar also helped the CAD recover the losses. USD/CAD Technical Levels In terms of technical patterns, the daily chart shows a rising channel formation. A daily close above 1.3538 (session high channel resistance) would open doors for a more sustained rise to 1.3589 (Nov 14 high) and 1.36 levels. On the lower side, a breach of Fridayrsquos low of 1.3454 could yield a sell-off to 1.34 (zero figure) under which a major support is seen at 1.3378 (Nov 22 low). 03:55 Key events on data packed week ahead - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank offered the key events for the week ahead. quotToday we see Eurozone M3 and hear from ECB speakers tomorrow we get Japanese labour data, German CPI, and US Q3 GDP / consumer confidence Wednesday has Japanese industrial production, Aussie building approvals, US ADP employment and personal income/spending, the Chicago PMI and the Fedrsquos Beige Book, as well as Canadian Q3 GDP, while we also have a rate decision in Brazil Thursday brings us Chinarsquos PMIs and the same in the US and Canada and on Friday itrsquos time for US payrolls once again. quot 03:47 AUD/JPY: bearish bias in risk-off start to the week more to come AUD/JPY has fallen off a cliff at the start of this week with an acceleration taking place as Tokyo got going triggering stops below the USD/JPY112.50 mark to the lows of 112.04 so far, equating to the cross as 83.31 at time of writing. Tokyo has set-off a run of risk-offness after the OPEC meeting got drenched in doubt at the end of last week, sparking further concerns over a spanner in the works of globalisation. The Saudies have suggested that ministers should agree to the cut and then present the agreement to non-OPEC countries before meeting, and thus announced that they will not attend the scheduled meeting. Oil Intermarket: Oversold safe havens extremely sensitive to oil price action This, in the absence of key Aussie releases and along with the greenback making tracks in overbought territory still, leaves doubt in the continuation of the post-Trump victory risk-on market and supports the Yen at the start of this week. US data will now dominate attention, including nonfarm payrolls and US GDP while markets get set for the end of the year39s showdown in the final FOMC meeting mid Dec. With spot at 83.33 currently, AUD/JPY is trading below the 20 sma on the 4hr sticks at 83.52. The bearish bias points towards a test below the figure at 82.90 and recent lows as first support below 82.58/40. 81.95. 81.00 is the last defence of this recent 20th Nov bullish rally en route to 85.60 recent highs with 86.65 late March highs thereafter. 03:45 Japan PM Abe: Want to keep pushing TPP Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is crossing the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech in parliament on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He did not comment on the monetary policy or on the economic prospects. Wants to keep pushing TPP Free trade stands at a crossroads 03:32 Oil Intermarket: Oversold safe havens extremely sensitive to oil price action Traditional safe havens - Treasuries, gold and funding currencies like the Yen and the EUR - suffered sharp losses over the last two weeks on expectations that Trump would pursue aggressive fiscal stimulus expansion policies. US stocks hit record highs, while Japanrsquos Nikkei entered the bull market territory. The surge on the Wall Street also ensured the European stocks avoided panic despite heightened political uncertainty. Consequently, both - overbought risk assets and oversold safe havens/funding currencies - stand exposed to the oil price action. OPEC needs to deliver As per an FT report, some of the worldrsquos biggest oil traders have warned that will need to cut in excess of 1m barrels a day to hit its target of 32.5m b/d that was set in a provisional accord in September. Moreover, after the numerous failed attempts over the last one year, the latest meeting is more of a credibility issue for the OPEC. However, Saudi Arabia said over the weekend that an OPEC deal may not be required. There is skepticism on whether Iran would be granted exemption. Inverse correlation between the Yen and Oil strengthens Thus, oil benchmarks dropped at least 1 in Asia and are already helping the Japanese Yen gain ground. The USD/JPY pair traded 1 lower (Yen 1 higher) around 112.00 levels. European benchmarks like the mining heavy FTSE 100, the overbought US stocks and the oversold US treasuries risk a sharp pull back if oil price sell-off worsens. Gold could underperform as a potential drop in oil prices would pull down inflation expectations. 03:17 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9042 vs 6.9168 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9042 vs 6.9168 03:01 Depressed USD/SGD falls below key SMA USD/SGD has just crossed below its 200-hour SMA. The last such price-indicator cross has been registered at least over a week ago on this time frame, accentuating its significance. Traders maintaining a downside bias, extend their projections to the 800-SMA, which corresponds to the 200-SMA on 4hr charts. 03:01 EUR/USD clears overhead resistance The EUR/USD 200 SMA, immediate resistance on 4-hour chart, was cleared in recent trading. Quoting below this dynamic hurdle for multilple sessions, EUR/USD is now targeting the 800-SMA on the upside. 02:50 USD/CNY fix projection: 6.9076 - Nomura Analysts at Nomura offered their USD/CNY fix projections as 6.9076. quotOur model1 projects the fix to be 92 pips lower than the previous fix (6.9076 from 6.9168) and 75 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.9151. The basket implied change is 90 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.9061 from 6.9151).quot 02:47 Is the greenback s light still a, green go-buy-it light - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank explained that with yields consolidating (in fact the US 10 year yield has come in from a high of 2.42 to 2.36), the USD showed a similar move on Friday. quotSuch consolidation doesnrsquot provide any clarity on whether the global liquidity cycle has come to an end ndash and the same for the USD. Rather, itrsquos symptomatic of wider considerations. The move to date has been aggressive and itrsquos natural to stop for a breath as a less favourable technical picture kicks in. One canrsquot have unfettered lifts in interest rates and not expect some fallout given the build-up in leverage no one knows where that tipping point is, although eyes are turned to emerging markets in terms of the fallout. A firmer USD is one factor tightening US financial conditions at present and hence future growth prospects. So markets invariably pause for a breath and look for the next catalyst. Expect attention to turn back towards the Fed (Yellen) and jobs data on whether the light is still green to buy USD. quot 02:33 USD/JPY consolidating multi-week highs at the start of the week USD/JPY is looking fragile in Asia at the start of the week following a mixed US close where US equities rose (SampP500 0.4 to a fresh record high), but the DXY closed close to 0.2 lower. USD/JPY met fresh highs at 113.88 last week that have not been seen since the end of March39s business earlier this year. We are headed in to a key week with the FOMC around the corner (mid Dec) and the nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week along with GDP to indicate whether the US recover has improved in H2 or not, according to official data. The Yen has moved to preferred levels for the BoJ, but with the impending risks associated with the European elections and the ECB39s monetary policy under scrutiny, the Yen remains the risk-off vehicle that could come back into vogue and halt the aggressive stance by USD/JPY bulls subsequent of Trump39s victory in the US elections on the 8/9th Nov. USD/JPY price action quotThe RSI has rolled over, and the Slow Stochastics is about to turn, while the MACDs are still trending higher, quot - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that, since November 4, the dollar has risen 11 against the yen, reaching almost JPY114 in Asia on Friday before profit-taking emerged. quotDollar buying re-emerged ahead of JPY112.50 and support extends toward JPY112.30 A break could see another yen decline that pushes the greenback toward JPY111.60. The US rate premium continued to widen. The two-year advantage rose to 1.31, which is the most since 2008. At 2.31, the 10-year premium is at a five-year high. quot In the bigger picture, it looks the drop in the dollar from last year39s high (almost JPY126) to this year39s low (circa JPY99) was corrective in nature, meeting a little more than the 50 retracement target of the Abenomics induced rally. This suggests further dollar gains against the yen lie ahead over the medium-term. Near-term, the JPY114.35-JPY114.65 may offer some resistance on the way to JPY115.00-JPY115.60.quot 02:01 Intraday SMA cross seen on USD/CAD A new leg up in USD/CAD bolstered its 100 hourly SMA to cross above the 200 period one. While this intraday Golden Cross doesnt assure the recent correction is done and dusted, the low prices printed on hourly charts are at a converging distance to the SMA cross. This price level could be used as a technical hotspot by many USD/CAD traders. The risk scenario is set once a close beyond the 200 SMA is printed. 01:52 NZD/USD recovery headed back towards 200 dma or still bearish NZD/USD is flat in a quiet start to the week where expectations are for business to pick up on the back of key events in the US calendar at least. NZD/USD has been at the mercy of the greenback and the sentiment around a Trump presidency coming to fruition in 2017 that is expected to see government fiscal stimulus to propel the economy forward within a new Republican administration. The kiwi, in its own right, has stabilized on a relatively robust economy in New Zealand of late, but this week, in the absence of key NZ data, the focus remains with the US economy as we head towards the final nonfarm payrolls before the long await FOMC meeting in the middle of the month. The Fed is expected to hike and that has been priced into the dollar, thus some are calling for a sell-off regardless of whether the Fed hike or not. The jobs data will come out at the end of the week in the ADP and nonfarm report while the GDP is also a key event for the week ahead while observers are expecting a more robust recovery in H2 to enable the Fed to continue pursuing a normalisation of rates in 2017. With spot just 40 pips below the 200 dma at 0.7095, analysts at Westpac offered an outlook for the day ahead and further out as follows: quot NZD/USD 1 day: The stalled US dollar allows strong economic fundamentals to come to the fore. Targets 0.7070 today. NZD/USD 1-3 month: The US dollar has had an impressive rise since the US election and has potential to rise further, not least because the Fed will probably hike in December. En contra de eso, la economía de Nueva Zelanda es fuerte y los precios de los productos lácteos han aumentado. Overall we are left with a bearish outlook for NZD/USD, targeting sub-0.70. Technicals suggest as low as 0.66 could be seen, courtesy of the head-and-shoulders break below 0.7080.quot 01:35 Dollar s pullback likely limited - BBH Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that after a three-week rally, the dollar bulls finally showed signs of tiring ahead of the weekend. quotTechnical indicators have begun rolling over from over-extended conditions. Nevertheless, the dollar39s pullback is likely limited in time to the first part of the week ahead, and in scope to only modest retracement targets ahead of the US employment data, the Italian referendum, and the Austrian presidential election on December 4. We have suggested that the dollar39s advance was fueled by the divergence that had little to do with the US election. It is clear from Fed comments and the minutes from the November FOMC meeting that officials were prepared to hike rates regardless of the election outcome. Moreover, subsequent data has been mostly better than expected. quot 01:27 Oil remains fragile on OPEC prospects WTI remains offered at the start of the week as doubts over the OPEC meeting hit the wires at the end of last week39s trade. Markets have been focused on the OPEC meeting that was scheduled to take place in Vienna with an objective to cut production costs, but the Saudies decided they won39t attend, according to Reuters and this news took the price way down on Friday to the lowest level since 17th November. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the January light sweet crude oil futures contract39s 14 rally since November 14 appears to have run out of steam: quotOptimism about the ability of OPEC and non-OPEC countries faded in recent sessions. The people playing up the likelihood of an agreement came from parties that might not participate in output cuts like Iran and Russia (reports suggested Iraq could participate). Then before the weekend, Saudi Arabia indicated that it would not attend a key meeting at the start of next week between OPEC and non-OPEC members amid disputes with Iran and Iraq over output cuts. At the same time, reports suggest Libyan output is set to increase markedly, and several non-OPEC producers also appear likely to boost output. Late longs were peeled off as the price dropped 3.6, retracing 50 of its rally since November 14. A break and maybe 47.50 may signal a move back to 45, if not lower. quot 00:57 USD/JPY: 110.00 on a 3 mth view - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank explained that the reflationary spirit that has taken hold of the US bond markets has injected a large amount of potency back into the BoJrsquos monetary policy settings. quotAs we have frequently pointed out the mighty US yield curve has had a huge impact on the transmission mechanism of several other central banks this year. In the first 9 months of 2016 US yields were trending lower and dragging down the value of the USD with them. Against the weight of the soft USD, central banks such as the BoJ, ECB, RBA and RBNZ were unable to undermine the value of their respective currencies vs. the greenback despite the announcement of fresh policy stimulus. The recovery in US yields started in October and the recent surge in their values and the USD can be associated with a significant loosening of the monetary conditions in several other economies due to exchange rate movements. The loosening in monetary conditions implied by the exchange rate will be a welcome relief to the BoJ. Last night the release of Japanese national CPI data for October confirmed a very weak inflationary backdrop. The core index at -0.4 y/y continued to display deflationary pressures, though the headline inflation number rose by a modest 0.1 m/m. Widespread scepticism in Japan about the ability of Japan to meet its 2 CPI inflation is likely to have a negative influence on forthcoming wage negotiations in Japan. In previous years the BoJ and government have pressured large companies to boosts wage deals in an effort to strengthen demand but these effort have clearly not been successful in turning around inflation expectations. Following a rise in concern about the side-effects of policies such as negative interest rates and QE, the BoJ in September announced a different tact. The BoJ currently aims to keep the 10 year JGB yield at 0. Domestic bank shares rallied on the announcement on the expectations that a steeper yield curve would offer their business models relief. However, this policy is unprecedented and there has been some concern as to how the BoJ would react to the upward drag on international bond yields caused by the movement in US treasuries. On November 17 the BoJ concluded a special fixed rate bond buying operation for the first time to reassert its commitment to it QE programme and fire a warning short against expectations of excessive moves in JGB yields. This commitment suggests that as long as the market believes in the reflationary power of the President-elect that the spread between US and JGB yields will widen and USD/JPY can fly higher. In our view, however, the market may be over-anticipating the reflationary prospects of the USD and both treasury yields and the USD could correct lower medium-term. While we have recently moved up our forecasts for USD/JPY, our expectation for a correction lower in US treasuries leads us to the conclusion that USD/JPY will also correct lower in the medium-term. Consequently we are forecasting a move back to 110.00 on a 3 mth view. quot 00:49 AUD/USD: steady in recovery ahead of key data events this week AUD/USD is currently steady in early Asia after a sideways and choppy narrow range to end the week last week. It is scheduled to be a quiet start to the week and commodities will be the focus with a slightly weaker greenback that closed 0.25 lower on Friday. Oil will be the key driver in markets due to the OPEC deal looking very slight right now after the Saudies refused to attend Mondays39 meeting with non-OPEC members. Then, later in the week, we have Chinese manufacturing data, US jobs and GDP numbers as a key focus. Analysts at Westpac offered AUD/USD in a 1-3 month outlook: quotThe US dollar has had an impressive rise since the US election and has potential to rise further, not least because the Fed will probably hike in December. En contra de eso, el carbón y el mineral de hierro son más propensos a mantener sus aumentos dramáticos durante los meses venideros. We target 0.72.quot The price broke up recently and has had a series of positive days, penetrating the key 0.7421/43 area and bulls now have eyes for the 200 and 55-day moving averages at 0.7529/87 ahead of the key psychological 0.76 handle. To the downside, we have strong support below the 0.7312/10 area that comes in between the mid-June low and 78.6 Fibonacci retracement at 0.7287/81 ahead of the 0.7150 lows in late May. 00:07 Banco de Mexico minutes could be interesting - BBH Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that Banco de Mexico releases its minutes Thursday. quotAt that meeting, it hiked rates 50 bp to 5.25 and left the door open to further tightening. Minutes will be scoured for clues, but we believe the major determinants going forward will be external. The next policy meeting is December 15, and the decision will largely depend on 1) the Fed and 2) the peso. If the Fed hikes December 14 and the peso remains under pressure, another 50 bp hike next month seems likely. quot Data source: FX Street Disclaimer :This material is provided by FXStreet as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. 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Hedging Overnight interest rates (swaps) Trailing stop Pending orders One-click trading Mobile trading Automated trading Minimum account size 1 Minimum position size 0.01 lot Spread type Fixed Spread on EUR/USD, pips 2 Scalping Allowed Expert advisors Allowed Trading instruments Digits after dot 4 Margin call level 1 Stop-out level 1 Minimum distance to stop/limit orders, pips 4 Number of currency pairs 28 Special notes Total maximum quantity of orders is 100. HistoryShow history Hide history Hedging Overnight interest rates (swaps) Trailing stop Pending orders One-click trading Mobile trading Automated trading Minimum account size 5 Minimum position size 1 lot Spread type Fixed Spread on EUR/USD, pips 2 Scalping Allowed Expert advisors Allowed Trading instruments Digits after dot 4 Margin call level 1 Stop-out level 1 Minimum distance to limit orders, pips 4 Number of currency pairs 28 HistoryShow history Hide history Hedging Overnight interest rates (swaps) Trailing stop Pending orders One-click trading Mobile trading Automated trading Minimum account size 500 Minimum position size 1 lot Spread type Variable Typical spread on EUR/USD, pips 0.2 Minimum spread on EUR/USD, pips 0.1 Commission (one-way) per 1 std. lot 2.40 Scalping Allowed Expert advisors Allowed Trading instruments Digits after dot 4 or 5 Margin call level 100 Stop-out level 60 Number of currency pairs 23 HistoryShow history Hide history Hedging Overnight interest rates (swaps) Trailing stop Pending orders One-click trading Mobile trading Automated trading Minimum account size 500 Minimum position size 0.1 lot Spread type Fixed Spread on EUR/USD, pips 2 Scalping Allowed Expert advisors Allowed Trading instruments Digits after dot 4 or 5 Margin call level 1 Stop-out level 1 Minimum distance to stop/limit orders, pips 4 HistoryShow history Hide history MASTERFOREX. ORG IS REALLY A SCAMMER. BE CAREFUL Quoted from ForexPeaceArmy : Date of Post: 2011-03-14 Review: Update about MF : Konstantin from MF always says tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow, but never pays me. I have proofs that my client traded and still MF dont have good will to pay me, otherwise they act like dumb. 2011-03-06 1Star Update abount Masterforex. org : I can not believe Master forex. They promised to pay referral commission the next day after I complained, but from 14 Feb until today (7 March) they have not paid me. They said, my clients had to register again to the new cabinet, in order to get the commission. At the same day I told my clients to register in the new cabinet (MF uses new cabinet recently) as per requested. And they didnt keep the promise. I think customer satisfaction should be main priority, but this is not the case in MF :) It seems they do not have intentions to solve this issue. Be very careful with this broker. SCAM is very possible 2011-02-20 1Star I have been trying to be Masterforex affiliate and introduce Master forex. Since the first time I didnt trust Russian Brokers, but for some reason my client forced me to become their affiliate so they could register under me. One of my biggest suspicion is they always hide clients NAME, EMAIL, PHONE, and other contact details in the referral list so it is almost impossible to contact your clients when you dont know personally with them. There are only stupid (login) numbers and information about the client has deposited or not in the list. (It is pretty obvious why they hide this. You can figure it out. They will probably take your BIG clients when you dont notice) At the beginning they paid the commission regularly, but sometimes there were dicrepancies, and after some complaints they fixed and paid me. MF said that it was system problem. I thought would they fix it if I didnt complain No one can guarantee this. This was the first attempt and I thought I should be more careful with this broker. Time went on until 14 February until 21 feb they didnt pay me even my clients traded and they closed the position more than 5 minutes and more than 5 points. I contaced support by sending 2 emails but they didnt reply, then I contacted their live support named Konstantin twice. he explained that the commission will be credited on 18 feb, but until today 21 feb there is still no commission from 14 feb. FYI, I am also introducing broker for many forex brokerage and have not experienced a scam possibility like this. I hope by writing this complaint MF will take this issue seriously and also to inform traders / introducing brokers to be very careful with this company. This is an EARLY WARNING. Im ready to share some proofs to FPA. I will inform you updates regarding this issue ive used these guys, withdrawn with no problems. traded fine.